Storm Warning 47, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 141222
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2008 

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-150100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
A 978 MB STORM FORCE LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE
ONSHORE JUST NORTH OF SITKA THIS EVENING AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT
CROSSES CENTRAL SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ310-150100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2008 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING N 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 141844 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
945 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2008 

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-150100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
A 978 MB STORM FORCE LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE
ONSHORE JUST NORTH OF SITKA THIS EVENING AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT
CROSSES CENTRAL SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ310-150100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
945 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2008 

UPDATED SEAS

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING N 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 28
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1224 PM AKST THU NOV 13 2008

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY ARE INDICATE WEAK TROF
IN NORTHERN GULF OF AK CONTINUING TO MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING WITH
IT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST NEAR PAYA AND RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST NEAR PASI. FURTHER INLAND GENERALLY
BROKEN CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL PEAKS OF THE SUN WHERE
OCCURRING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE
INLAND EXPECT TO INCREASE AT INLAND LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OUTER
COAST...THIS IS THE CALM BEFORE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW.

 WIND AND RAIN INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTS AND
THEN INLAND AREAS AS 985 MB (12ZGFS) TO 980 MB (12ZNAM) LOW MOVES
NE FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OVER 140W TOWARDS SITKA. WIND
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED STARTING TONIGHT FOR ZONES 23,
27, AND 28. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW. NAM12Z DEEPENS THE LOW TO 978 MB
AND TRACKS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE GFS12Z. MODEL BLEND OF THE GFS
AND NAM PROVIDED EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH INHERITED GRIDS AND
WEATHER TRENDS AND WITH LONG TERM DESK.

 &&

.LONG TERM...GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE STORM
FORCE LOW FOR FRIDAY AND SAT...BUT STILL SOME STRENGTH AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES. MODELS THEN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE SE GULF ON MONDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THE STORM FORCE LOW STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS NE ACROSS
THE SE GULF THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
FRI NIGHT. THE 70 KT SW JET MAX WITH THE SECOND WRAP STILL
EXPECTED TO BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE OFFSHORE GULF,
CLARENCE STRAIT AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL ZONES. NEW MODELS DID WEAKEN WINDS A BIT BUT STILL KEPT
AT ADVISORY LEVELS. EASTERLY GALES FOR ICY STRAIT AND CROSS SOUND
WITH N SMCR FOR N AND S LYNN CANAL. RAIN WILL SPREAD N AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW N OF
FREDERICKS SOUND AND SNOW IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND AND WITH A BUILDING RIDGE WILL SEE A DROP IN WINDS AND
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE
SUN.

FOR MONDAY MODELS KEEP THE NEXT LOW MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AK
PANHANDLE BUT SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AND TRACK. GFS
COMING IN STRONGER, SLOWER AND KEEPING MORE TO THE SOUTH WITH THE
EC WEAKER, FASTER AND TRACKING MORE TO THE NORTH. LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AFTER COORDINATION WITH HPC AND ANCHORAGE
BUT KEEPING WINDS A BIT LOWER THAN THE GFS FOR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.THE NEXT SYSTEM ON WED WILL BE WEAKER BUT KEEPING POPS IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND BUT STILL A QUESTION
WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT WHICH WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
FINAL STORM TRACK. CONFIDENCE DROPS FOR NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
DIVERGING MODELS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
PKZ021-022-033-035-036-042-043-051-052.

&&

CCC/PRB