Storm Warning 52, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 120219 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
518 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-122030-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
 A 971 MB STORM CENTER WILL DEVELOP OFF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
EARLY WED. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
GULF LATER ON WED AND WED NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-122030-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
518 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT THIS EVENING SHIFTING TO 
SW 45 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT. SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-122030-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
518 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT THEN SHIFTING TO N 35 KT
LATE. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-122030-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
518 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT SHIFTING TO N LATE. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL.
RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-122030-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
518 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-122030-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
518 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 120659 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
958 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-130100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
 A 971 MB STORM CENTER WILL DEVELOP OFF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
EARLY WED. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
GULF LATER ON WED AND WED NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-130100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
958 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT. SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-130100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
958 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-130100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
958 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT SHIFTING TO N LATE. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL.
RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-130100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
958 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-130100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
958 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
245 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

.ANALYSIS...FRONT DYING OUT OVER PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH MOST
OF CONTRAST GONE ALOFT. MAJOR UPR LOW OVR ST. LAWRENCE ISL IN
BERING SEA AT 12Z WITH 500 HPA TEMPS -38C IN CENTER PRETTY MUCH
WINTER. 17Z GOES LOOKS LIKE POLAR LOW DEVELOPMENT OVR CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. COMPLEX SFC DEVELOPMENT AROUND 48N 155W AT 16Z WITH
SECOND CENTER AROUND 50N 149W AND STRONG FRONT WITH A FEW WAVES
EXTENDING WELL SW THEN W. JAT ENTRANCE AT TAIWAN CYCLONIC TO
175-200KT THEN ANTICYCLONIC ERN PACIFIC WITH EXIT OVR AZ. JET
ENERGY IN REASONABLE POSITION TO SUPPORT GULF DEVELOPMENT BUT
COLDEST AIR ALF REMAINS BACK OVR ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM...FRONTAL EVENT IS OVER TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME BARRIER FLOW IN THE ICY BAY AREA. BIG CHALLENGE IS TONIGHT
WITH THE STORM CENTER DEVELOPING INTO THE LOWER 970S JUST OFF THE
CHARLOTTES AT 12Z. QUESTION IS TO WARN OR ADVISORY FOR ZONES 27
AND 28. 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TRACK BUT
AK-GFS-40 IS DEEPEST. WITH MORE COLD AIR THAN THE LAST ONE AS PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY INSTINCTS ARE TO PUT MORE WIND IN THAN LESS BUT
WILL KEEP GOING WITH MAX WIND ADVISORIES TONITE FOR THE CONCERNED
AREAS WITH A LOOK AT TENDENCIES AS WE GET CLOSE TO THE EVENT.

.LONG TERM...THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM THIS
MORNING AS THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE IN THE MID
RANGE BUT FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK THERE IS STILL LARGE
SPREADS WITH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS. DID NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO THE MID RANGE...DAY 3 AND 4...AS THERE IS STILL
STRENGTH ISSUES WITH THE LARGE STORM ON FRIDAY BUT THE TIMING AND
TRACK LOOKS GOOD. FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
EC AND THE HPC GRIDS AS THE EC HAS BEEN BETTER RUN TO RUN AND THE
GFS IS AN OUTLIER ALONG WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AS THEY HAVE BEEN
RUNNING TO STRONG WITH LOWS.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PANHANDLE
WITH CAA ALOFT OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH ONSHORE
FLOW FROM A UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GULF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROF LIFTS INTO CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS OVER THE
GULF WILL REMAIN TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS
FROM THE WEST. PRECIP WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE CAA AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL RANGE FROM -39 TO -33 ALONG WITH
850MB TEMPS NEAR -8.

A LARGE AND STRONG LOW IS FORECASTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND DRIFT INTO THE GULF THROUGH FRI AND THEN MOVE INLAND
NEAR CAPE SPENCER THAT NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL USHER IN STRONG GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF AND OVER E/W CHANNELS OVER THE
PANHANDLE. THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL LAND AREAS MAY NEED WIND
ADVY AS THE FRONT WILL BE POWERFUL AS THERE IS STRONG WAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE SOME COLD AIR OVER THE
AREA AND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY NEED A SNOW ADY OR WARNING AS THEY WILL KEEP A
NORTHERLY GRADIENT WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT.

ONCE THIS LOW MOVES INTO CANADA AND OUT OF THE OUR AREA A STRONG
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH SAT. THIS HIGH WILL BE TRANSIENT AND BE IN
CANADA BY SUN. ANOTHER LOW IS FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN GULF ON MON BY THE EC BUT THE GFS DOES NOT EVEN SHOW
THIS LOW. SO THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT PART OF THE
FORECAST BUT DO LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE EC.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ027-028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-031-034>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
AKZ011>013-021-032-033-043-051-052.