Gale Warning 308, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
245 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

.ANALYSIS...FRONT DYING OUT OVER PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH MOST
OF CONTRAST GONE ALOFT. MAJOR UPR LOW OVR ST. LAWRENCE ISL IN
BERING SEA AT 12Z WITH 500 HPA TEMPS -38C IN CENTER PRETTY MUCH
WINTER. 17Z GOES LOOKS LIKE POLAR LOW DEVELOPMENT OVR CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. COMPLEX SFC DEVELOPMENT AROUND 48N 155W AT 16Z WITH
SECOND CENTER AROUND 50N 149W AND STRONG FRONT WITH A FEW WAVES
EXTENDING WELL SW THEN W. JAT ENTRANCE AT TAIWAN CYCLONIC TO
175-200KT THEN ANTICYCLONIC ERN PACIFIC WITH EXIT OVR AZ. JET
ENERGY IN REASONABLE POSITION TO SUPPORT GULF DEVELOPMENT BUT
COLDEST AIR ALF REMAINS BACK OVR ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM...FRONTAL EVENT IS OVER TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME BARRIER FLOW IN THE ICY BAY AREA. BIG CHALLENGE IS TONIGHT
WITH THE STORM CENTER DEVELOPING INTO THE LOWER 970S JUST OFF THE
CHARLOTTES AT 12Z. QUESTION IS TO WARN OR ADVISORY FOR ZONES 27
AND 28. 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TRACK BUT
AK-GFS-40 IS DEEPEST. WITH MORE COLD AIR THAN THE LAST ONE AS PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY INSTINCTS ARE TO PUT MORE WIND IN THAN LESS BUT
WILL KEEP GOING WITH MAX WIND ADVISORIES TONITE FOR THE CONCERNED
AREAS WITH A LOOK AT TENDENCIES AS WE GET CLOSE TO THE EVENT.

.LONG TERM...THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM THIS
MORNING AS THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE IN THE MID
RANGE BUT FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK THERE IS STILL LARGE
SPREADS WITH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS. DID NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO THE MID RANGE...DAY 3 AND 4...AS THERE IS STILL
STRENGTH ISSUES WITH THE LARGE STORM ON FRIDAY BUT THE TIMING AND
TRACK LOOKS GOOD. FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
EC AND THE HPC GRIDS AS THE EC HAS BEEN BETTER RUN TO RUN AND THE
GFS IS AN OUTLIER ALONG WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AS THEY HAVE BEEN
RUNNING TO STRONG WITH LOWS.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PANHANDLE
WITH CAA ALOFT OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH ONSHORE
FLOW FROM A UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GULF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROF LIFTS INTO CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS OVER THE
GULF WILL REMAIN TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS
FROM THE WEST. PRECIP WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE CAA AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL RANGE FROM -39 TO -33 ALONG WITH
850MB TEMPS NEAR -8.

A LARGE AND STRONG LOW IS FORECASTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND DRIFT INTO THE GULF THROUGH FRI AND THEN MOVE INLAND
NEAR CAPE SPENCER THAT NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL USHER IN STRONG GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF AND OVER E/W CHANNELS OVER THE
PANHANDLE. THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL LAND AREAS MAY NEED WIND
ADVY AS THE FRONT WILL BE POWERFUL AS THERE IS STRONG WAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE SOME COLD AIR OVER THE
AREA AND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY NEED A SNOW ADY OR WARNING AS THEY WILL KEEP A
NORTHERLY GRADIENT WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT.

ONCE THIS LOW MOVES INTO CANADA AND OUT OF THE OUR AREA A STRONG
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH SAT. THIS HIGH WILL BE TRANSIENT AND BE IN
CANADA BY SUN. ANOTHER LOW IS FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN GULF ON MON BY THE EC BUT THE GFS DOES NOT EVEN SHOW
THIS LOW. SO THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT PART OF THE
FORECAST BUT DO LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE EC.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ027-028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-031-034>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
AKZ011>013-021-032-033-043-051-052.