Storm Warning 2, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 121245
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST SAT JAN 12 2008 

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-130100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
A 975 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR CAPE SPENCER BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE YUKON THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
LATE SUN. 

$$

PKZ310-130100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AST SAT JAN 12 2008 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING W 40 TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IN
THE MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 20 TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS
14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 130015
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-131730-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
A 978 MB GALE FORCE LOW NEAR CAPE SPENCER WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE YUKON TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN GULF TOMORROW MORNING AND TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ310-131730-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. RAIN IN THE
MORNING.  
.SUN NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1200 PM AST FRI JAN 11 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND ITS
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING VISIBLE PER RADAR AND SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS. SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE NORTHWARD AND
RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
LIFT MOVES INTO BC AND THE YUKON. AS THE PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES
INTO BC THE SNOW WILL BECOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEN OUR
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
THIS EVENING. GFS/UKMET INITIALIZED THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEST THIS MORNING HOWEVER THE GFS WAS A LITTLE SLOW WITH ITS
REPRESENTATION OF THE DRY SLOT VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING WAS
HANDLED BETTER BY THE GFS SO A GFS/UKMET BLEND WILL BE USED THIS
EVENING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WITH THE 12Z GFS/UKMET THE SURFACE LOW TRACK CONTINUES TO NUDGE
FARTHER WEST NOW MOVING ONSHORE JUST NORTH OF CROSS SOUND. THIS
WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE THE SNOW/RAIN LINE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. ATTM CONTINUING WIND ADVISORIES
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ADDING WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE
OUTER COASTAL AREAS AS A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND LIKELY FOR ZONE 29 COASTAL
AREAS NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR A SHORT PERIOD IN MARINE ZONES 41 AND 42 WITHIN THE
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN ON SATURDAY POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TONIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
WITH THE WARMER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTING NORTHWARD. EXPECT THE
WARMER MID LEVEL AIR TO PUSH NORTHWARD ALL THE WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SHOULD MOVE
ALL THE WAY TO THE ICY STRAIT/PAJN AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO
THEREFORE STILL EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WITH THIS EVENT TO
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. EXPECT SNOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE HAINES AREA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
BORDER. ATTM EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE PAGS AND PAJN AREAS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
NORTH ALONG LYNN CANAL AND IN NORTHERN GLACIER BAY.

.LONG RANGE...
ACTIVE WX PATTERN FROM LATE SAT THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
PLENTY OF JET SUPPORT. STRONG RIDGING FORECAST FOR GULF AK NEXT
WEEK AS DEEP STORM SETS UP OVER BERING. EVOLUTION OF NOTABLE
WEATHER OVER LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL INCLUDE WIND THEN RAIN AND
SNOW THEN COLD.

CONSENSUS OPINION AMONG JUNEAU AND ANCHORAGE FORECASTERS IS TO
LEAN TOWARD 00Z AND 12Z GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS INCLUDES A SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WHILE WEAKENING SAT
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE BRIEF SPELL OF GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND
ON SOUTH SIDE OF LOW AND IT DEPARTS. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...>40
KTS... ALREADY FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN ZONES AND COULD REACH INTO
CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS SAT NIGHT. WILL NOT HEADLINE SAT NIGHT
YET.

ANOTHER LOW QUICKLY FOLLOWS INTO SOUTHERN SE AK SUN AND MOVES NE
THROUGH INNER CHANNELS BEFORE WEAKEING OVER NRN BC LATE SUN. THIS
TRACK HAS POTENTIAL FOR A SNOWY DAY SUN OVER NW HALF OF PANHANDLE
INCLUDING SITKA...JUNEAU...HAINES ...SKAGWAY. FARTHER SOUTH
SYSTEM WILL START AS ALL RAIN SAT NIGHT THEN CHANGE TO SNOW SUN
AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. DEPENDING ON SPECIFIC LOCATION OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES AND DEFORMATION BANDS...THE SECOND SYSTEM MAY REQUIRE
UPGRADING SAT SNOW ADVISORIES TO SNOW WARNINGS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN NORTH OF ABOUT SUMNER STRAIT.

SUN NIGHT AND MON VERY COLD AIR OVER NRN AK SAGS S THROUGH NW AND
YUKON TERRITORIES TO COASTAL MOUNTAINS IN WAKE OF THE SUN SYSTEM.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH ON PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERN AND
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY STRONG GAP WINDS AND FREEZING SPRAY SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUES. COLDER TEMPS ALMOST CERTAINLY IN STORE AS 850
MB TEMPS OVER PANHANDLE BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN -10C AND -20C MON.

THE FAR END OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STILL UNCERTAIN. BLOCKY HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OFFSHORE WEST COAST NORTH
AMERICA NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO MAJOR LOWS ANCHORING IN OVER
SIBERIA/BERING SEA AND N OF HUDSON BAY CANADA. POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A DRY STABLE FOGGY EPISODE UNDER A STRONG INVERSION LATE NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER GFS DEPICTS ONE OR MORE DEEP LOW CENTERS OVER WEST
GULF RIDING UP WEST SIDE OF RIDGE. THIS COULD POSSIBLY LEAD TO
OVER RUNNING PRECIP EVENTS OVER PANHANDLE AGAIN STARTING MID
WEEK. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FCSTS DAYS 4-7.  TA

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC... WND ADVISORY AKZ027-028
MARINE... GALE PKZ036-041>042
          SMCR ELSEWHERE EXCEPT PKZ022 AND 53