Storm Warning 11, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 070025
CWFAEG
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST WED FEB 6 2008 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-071400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 984 MB LOW 140 NM WEST OF THE DIXON ENTRANCE WILL TRACK EAST
THEN INLAND TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO FILL. STRONG NORTH WIND WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS.  
$$

PKZ041-071400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AST WED FEB 6 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL.  
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  
$$

PKZ042-071400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AST WED FEB 6 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT. SNOW IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. SW SWELL.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E GALE 45 KT SHIFTING S TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  
$$

PKZ043-071400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AST WED FEB 6 2008 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
$$

PKZ051-071400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AST WED FEB 6 2008 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. FREEZING SPRAY.

.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW.
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ052-071400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AST WED FEB 6 2008 

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO
9 FT LATE. 
.THU...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 070218 CCA
CWFAEG
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
515 PM AST WED FEB 6 2008 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-071400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 984 MB LOW 140 NM WEST OF THE DIXON ENTRANCE WILL TRACK EAST
THEN INLAND TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO FILL. STRONG NORTH WIND WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS.  
$$

PKZ041-071400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AST WED FEB 6 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL.  
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  
$$

PKZ042-071400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AST WED FEB 6 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT. SNOW IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. SW SWELL.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E GALE 45 KT SHIFTING S TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  
$$

PKZ043-071400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AST WED FEB 6 2008 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
$$

PKZ051-071400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
515 PM AST WED FEB 6 2008

CORRECTED FOR EXTRA SPACE 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW.
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ052-071400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
515 PM AST WED FEB 6 2008 

CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO
9 FT LATE. 
.THU...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST TUE FEB 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...PRIMARY ITEM SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WITH PETERSBURG PICKING UP 2 INCHES IN
ONE HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW HAS PICKED UP IN WRANGELL AS
WELL AND SO HAVE ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR ZONE 26. SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LOW OVER THE DIXON ENTRANCE THAT IS TRACKING
NORTHEAST. PRECIP BANDS ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THIS LOW
WHICH ARE PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW OVER ZONE 26 SHOULD TRACK EAST
OVER ZONE 29 THIS AFTERNOON. HYDER RECEIVED 18 INCHES OF SNOW
SNOW LAST NIGHT AND MORE POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW IS ON THE WAY SO
HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR ZONE 29 UNTIL 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIP RATES IN ZONES 27 AND 28 ARE MODERATE AS WELL
BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES THERE ARE RESULTING IN A RAIN SNOW MIX
AND SO DO NOT FEEL THAT THEY WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL
BEFORE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS OUT TO THE EAST. ELSEWHERE...NOT A LOT
OF SNOW...IF ANY...FALLING AT THE PRESENT TIME. FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AM GOING WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT DECREASING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE
SOUTHERN 3 ZONES WHICH SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT BEFORE
SNOW AND RAIN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
LOW APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM THE GULF.

WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER THE DIXON ENTRANCE ARE
GENERALLY 25 TO 35 MPH WITH MARGINALLY GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
INNER CHANNELS NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. WEST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...IN ZONES 27 AND 28 GUSTS ARE A LITTLE LOWER...20 TO
25 MPH. CURRENTLY HAVE WIND ADVISORIES FOR 27 AND 28 BUT MAY NEED
THEM FOR ZONES 24 AND 26 BEFORE THE DAY IS THROUGH. ELSEWHERE...A
STRONG NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEGINNING
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH IS EVIDENT IN SKAGWAY WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH WITH REGULAR GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS IN HAINES ARE A LITTLE LOWER BUT BOTH THESE ZONES ARE
CURRENTLY COVERED BY A WIND ADVISORY THAT RUNS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FULLY EXPECT THESE WIND ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
EFFECT IN PLACE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR ZONE 17 IS IN PLACE FOR STRONG NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS EAST OF YAKUTAT SO DO NOT EXPECT YAKUTAT PROPER TO SEE MUCH
WIND AT ALL EVEN THOUGH THE OUTFLOW...AND WIND ADVISORY...WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. DO NOT THINK
THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 20...22...AND 25 WILL BE NECESSARY
AND MAY CANCEL THEM BEFORE THE AFTERNOON FORECAST IS ISSUED.

IN THE MARINES...WILL BE CONTINUING THE GALE FOR COASTAL ZONE 51
FOR SURE AND POSSIBLY 52 AS WELL. MAY HAVE TO ADD 43. PLANNING ON
DROPPING 41 AND 42 TO SMALL CRAFT. ON THE INSIDE...PLANNING ON
CONTINUING THE GALE WARNING FOR LYNN CANAL. MAY CONTINUE STEPHENS
PASSAGE GALE WARNING BUT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM FIVE FINGER
ARE MARGINAL GALE FORCE AND NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UNTIL LATE
TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS...SEAS...OR BOTH.

.LONG RANGE...THE MID TO LONG RANGE PERIODS OF THE FORECAST
STARTING TO COME A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER.  SOME
INTER-MODEL DISCREPENCIES PERSIST (AS THEY ALWAYS WILL) THEY AT
LEAST LOOK REASONABLY SIMILAR WITH THE PATTERN... AND EVEN SOME
OF THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCIES ARE IMPROVING AS WELL.  THE
FAVORED MODEL RUN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BY THE NCEP ALASKA DESK WAS
THE THE GFS WITH A BIT OF THE GEFS MEAN... AND A MORE EVEN SPLIT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE NEW 12Z GFS RUN LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE AND INTO FRIDAY IS
SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. SO WILL NOT BE MAKING
MUCH IN WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FRIDAY... HOW I WILL BE
INTEGRATING THE NEW RUN WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WILL START WITH A BLEND TO
THE NEW RUN INTO THE LONG RANGE.

THE MAIN THING OVER ALL IS THAT IT APPEARS THE MAIN FLOW PATTERN
MAY BE BEGINNING TO SHIFT AROUND TO BRING THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO
THE MAIN STORM TRACK BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HVY SNOW WRNG AKZ029
         SNOW ADVSRY AKZ026
         WIND ADVSRY AKZ017>019-020-022-025027>029
MARINE...GALES PKZ011>013-031-036-041>042-051>052
         SMALLCRAFT ELSEWHERE

FCF - BMB