Gale Warning 64, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST TUE FEB 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...PRIMARY ITEM SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WITH PETERSBURG PICKING UP 2 INCHES IN
ONE HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW HAS PICKED UP IN WRANGELL AS
WELL AND SO HAVE ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR ZONE 26. SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LOW OVER THE DIXON ENTRANCE THAT IS TRACKING
NORTHEAST. PRECIP BANDS ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THIS LOW
WHICH ARE PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW OVER ZONE 26 SHOULD TRACK EAST
OVER ZONE 29 THIS AFTERNOON. HYDER RECEIVED 18 INCHES OF SNOW
SNOW LAST NIGHT AND MORE POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW IS ON THE WAY SO
HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR ZONE 29 UNTIL 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIP RATES IN ZONES 27 AND 28 ARE MODERATE AS WELL
BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES THERE ARE RESULTING IN A RAIN SNOW MIX
AND SO DO NOT FEEL THAT THEY WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL
BEFORE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS OUT TO THE EAST. ELSEWHERE...NOT A LOT
OF SNOW...IF ANY...FALLING AT THE PRESENT TIME. FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AM GOING WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT DECREASING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE
SOUTHERN 3 ZONES WHICH SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT BEFORE
SNOW AND RAIN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
LOW APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM THE GULF.

WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER THE DIXON ENTRANCE ARE
GENERALLY 25 TO 35 MPH WITH MARGINALLY GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
INNER CHANNELS NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. WEST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...IN ZONES 27 AND 28 GUSTS ARE A LITTLE LOWER...20 TO
25 MPH. CURRENTLY HAVE WIND ADVISORIES FOR 27 AND 28 BUT MAY NEED
THEM FOR ZONES 24 AND 26 BEFORE THE DAY IS THROUGH. ELSEWHERE...A
STRONG NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEGINNING
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH IS EVIDENT IN SKAGWAY WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH WITH REGULAR GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS IN HAINES ARE A LITTLE LOWER BUT BOTH THESE ZONES ARE
CURRENTLY COVERED BY A WIND ADVISORY THAT RUNS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FULLY EXPECT THESE WIND ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
EFFECT IN PLACE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR ZONE 17 IS IN PLACE FOR STRONG NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS EAST OF YAKUTAT SO DO NOT EXPECT YAKUTAT PROPER TO SEE MUCH
WIND AT ALL EVEN THOUGH THE OUTFLOW...AND WIND ADVISORY...WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. DO NOT THINK
THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 20...22...AND 25 WILL BE NECESSARY
AND MAY CANCEL THEM BEFORE THE AFTERNOON FORECAST IS ISSUED.

IN THE MARINES...WILL BE CONTINUING THE GALE FOR COASTAL ZONE 51
FOR SURE AND POSSIBLY 52 AS WELL. MAY HAVE TO ADD 43. PLANNING ON
DROPPING 41 AND 42 TO SMALL CRAFT. ON THE INSIDE...PLANNING ON
CONTINUING THE GALE WARNING FOR LYNN CANAL. MAY CONTINUE STEPHENS
PASSAGE GALE WARNING BUT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM FIVE FINGER
ARE MARGINAL GALE FORCE AND NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UNTIL LATE
TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS...SEAS...OR BOTH.

.LONG RANGE...THE MID TO LONG RANGE PERIODS OF THE FORECAST
STARTING TO COME A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER.  SOME
INTER-MODEL DISCREPENCIES PERSIST (AS THEY ALWAYS WILL) THEY AT
LEAST LOOK REASONABLY SIMILAR WITH THE PATTERN... AND EVEN SOME
OF THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCIES ARE IMPROVING AS WELL.  THE
FAVORED MODEL RUN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BY THE NCEP ALASKA DESK WAS
THE THE GFS WITH A BIT OF THE GEFS MEAN... AND A MORE EVEN SPLIT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE NEW 12Z GFS RUN LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE AND INTO FRIDAY IS
SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. SO WILL NOT BE MAKING
MUCH IN WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FRIDAY... HOW I WILL BE
INTEGRATING THE NEW RUN WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WILL START WITH A BLEND TO
THE NEW RUN INTO THE LONG RANGE.

THE MAIN THING OVER ALL IS THAT IT APPEARS THE MAIN FLOW PATTERN
MAY BE BEGINNING TO SHIFT AROUND TO BRING THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO
THE MAIN STORM TRACK BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HVY SNOW WRNG AKZ029
         SNOW ADVSRY AKZ026
         WIND ADVSRY AKZ017>019-020-022-025027>029
MARINE...GALES PKZ011>013-031-036-041>042-051>052
         SMALLCRAFT ELSEWHERE

FCF - BMB