Small Craft Advisory 621, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAJK 131144 AAB
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
240 AM AKST THU NOV 13 2008 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-131400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE GULF AND THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OUTLOOK. A VERY STRONG STORM
FORCE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO THE
EASTERN GULF FRIDAY.

$$

PKZ011-131400-
GLACIER BAY-
400 PM AKST WED NOV 12 2008 

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-131400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
240 AM AKST THU NOV 13 2008 8 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-131400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
240 AM AKST THU NOV 13 2008 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-131400-
ICY STRAIT-
400 PM AKST WED NOV 12 2008 

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-131400-
CROSS SOUND-
240 AM AKST THU NOV 13 2008  

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-131400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
240 AM AKST THU NOV 13 2008  

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-131400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKST WED NOV 12 2008 

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-131400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKST WED NOV 12 2008 

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-131400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 PM AKST WED NOV 12 2008 

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-131400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
240 AM AKST THU NOV 13 2008 

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-131400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
240 AM AKST THU NOV 13 2008 

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT
9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.FRI...SE GALE 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAJK 131232
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 13 2008 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-140100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA ON THURSDAY.
A DEVELOPING STORM FORCE LOW WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST OF CAPE
DECISION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ011-140100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 13 2008 

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-140100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 13 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN
RAIN AND SNOW LATE. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-140100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 13 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-140100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 13 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND BECOMING 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN IN THE
EVENING. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-140100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 13 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. SW SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-140100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 13 2008 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LATE. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-140100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 13 2008 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE
EVENING. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-140100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 13 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT...
EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT
8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-140100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 13 2008 

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE LATE. GUSTS TO 40 MPH OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-140100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 13 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING AND
BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WIND NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
SEAS 4 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT SHIFTING W IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-140100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 13 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT
OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1211 PM AKST WED NOV 12 2008

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS THE SURFACE
LOW THAT MOVED INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING
CONTINUING TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND INTO BC AND CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN. IN ITS WAKE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AND WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. RADAR REVEALING EMBEDDED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE
WEST. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN MOST ZONES
WHERE FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE OFF
SHORE ZONES. GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CROSS SOUND AND SMALL
CRAFT IN EFFECT FOR ICY STRAIT WITH CHANNELING WEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING.

 AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. WITH
WEAK CAA IN THE MID LEVELS AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING
RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW FROM FREDERICK SOUND NORTHWARD. QPF IS
LIMITED SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. A RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN GULF IN THE SHORT TERM
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER SE AK EXPECT THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA BUT ALSO DIMINISH SOME
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MODELS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL TODAY BUT THEN
DIVERGE ON THE LOCATION STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE NEXT STORM
FORCE LOW MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC INTO THE AK GULF
THURS/FRI. 00Z EC HAD THE LOW STRONGER AND A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
THAN THE CURRENT GRIDS AND 12Z GFS, WHICH HAD THE LOW WEAKER AND
MORE TO THE EAST. EC ALSO FILLED IN THE LOW MUCH QUICKER THAN THE
GFS AFTER LAND FALL ON 12Z SAT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH ANCHORAGE
AND HPC DECIDED TO LEARN MORE TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AS HPC NOTED THE
12Z EC WAS MORE OF AN OUTLIER. DID A 50/50 BLEND WITH W/ 12Z GFS
AND CURRENT GRIDS UNTIL DAY 4 BUT KEPT WIND STRENGTH MORE IN LINE
WITH THE PREVIOUS GRIDS. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES.

BEYOND DAY 5 MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN DEALING WITH ANOTHER
LOW MOVING UP FORM THE N PACIFIC AND UNDERCUTTING THE CHARLOTTES
WITH THE EC BRINGING THE LOW IN MUCH STRONGER. A THIRD LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE AK PENINSULA ON DAY 6 IS ALSO MUCH STRONGER
IN THE EC RUNS THAN THE GFS AND TRACKS MORE TO THE NORTH.
BLENDING IN THE 12Z EC AND 12Z HPC GUIDANCE TO BRING IN THIS
FEATURE.

THE RIDGE OVER THE PNHL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW A BIT
WEAKER THEN PREVIOUS RUNS AT 988 MB FRIDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT STORM
FORCE WINDS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW WITH GALES ALONG THE SOUTHER
OUTSIDE WATERS FRI. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE S PNHL
EXPECTING SOUTHERN ZONE WINDS TO REACH GALE FORCE WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING IN THE CENTRAL
ZONES FRI EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. EXPECTING
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE SOUTH
WITH IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM UNTIL DAY 4.
CONFIDENCE IF LOW AFTER DAY 5 WITH SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-041>043-051-052.

&&

CCC/ABJ/PRB