Gale Warning 349, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1211 PM AKST WED NOV 12 2008

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS THE SURFACE
LOW THAT MOVED INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING
CONTINUING TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND INTO BC AND CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN. IN ITS WAKE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AND WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. RADAR REVEALING EMBEDDED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE
WEST. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN MOST ZONES
WHERE FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE OFF
SHORE ZONES. GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CROSS SOUND AND SMALL
CRAFT IN EFFECT FOR ICY STRAIT WITH CHANNELING WEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING.

 AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. WITH
WEAK CAA IN THE MID LEVELS AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING
RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW FROM FREDERICK SOUND NORTHWARD. QPF IS
LIMITED SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. A RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN GULF IN THE SHORT TERM
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER SE AK EXPECT THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA BUT ALSO DIMINISH SOME
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MODELS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL TODAY BUT THEN
DIVERGE ON THE LOCATION STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE NEXT STORM
FORCE LOW MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC INTO THE AK GULF
THURS/FRI. 00Z EC HAD THE LOW STRONGER AND A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
THAN THE CURRENT GRIDS AND 12Z GFS, WHICH HAD THE LOW WEAKER AND
MORE TO THE EAST. EC ALSO FILLED IN THE LOW MUCH QUICKER THAN THE
GFS AFTER LAND FALL ON 12Z SAT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH ANCHORAGE
AND HPC DECIDED TO LEARN MORE TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AS HPC NOTED THE
12Z EC WAS MORE OF AN OUTLIER. DID A 50/50 BLEND WITH W/ 12Z GFS
AND CURRENT GRIDS UNTIL DAY 4 BUT KEPT WIND STRENGTH MORE IN LINE
WITH THE PREVIOUS GRIDS. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES.

BEYOND DAY 5 MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN DEALING WITH ANOTHER
LOW MOVING UP FORM THE N PACIFIC AND UNDERCUTTING THE CHARLOTTES
WITH THE EC BRINGING THE LOW IN MUCH STRONGER. A THIRD LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE AK PENINSULA ON DAY 6 IS ALSO MUCH STRONGER
IN THE EC RUNS THAN THE GFS AND TRACKS MORE TO THE NORTH.
BLENDING IN THE 12Z EC AND 12Z HPC GUIDANCE TO BRING IN THIS
FEATURE.

THE RIDGE OVER THE PNHL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW A BIT
WEAKER THEN PREVIOUS RUNS AT 988 MB FRIDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT STORM
FORCE WINDS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW WITH GALES ALONG THE SOUTHER
OUTSIDE WATERS FRI. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE S PNHL
EXPECTING SOUTHERN ZONE WINDS TO REACH GALE FORCE WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING IN THE CENTRAL
ZONES FRI EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. EXPECTING
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE SOUTH
WITH IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM UNTIL DAY 4.
CONFIDENCE IF LOW AFTER DAY 5 WITH SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-041>043-051-052.

&&

CCC/ABJ/PRB