Gale Warning 52, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST TUE JAN 29 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A LOW
CIRCULATION JUST WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES WITH CONTINUED
GUSTY NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HYDER
ZONE. OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS...A RESIDUAL LOW IN THE NORTH
EASTERN GULF MAINTAINS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR GUSTY
NORTHEAST WIND OVER SKAGWAY ZONE. COLD AIR EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ANCHOR THERE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. MODEL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES HINT FOR EVEN COLDER READINGS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SKAGWAY AND
HAINES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
JUNEAU ZONES FOR TONIGHT.

ALL MODELS ARE WELL INITIALIZED. NAM OUTPUTS ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN OTHER MODELS BUT ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW NEAR
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES WEAKENING AND DRIFTING SOUTHEAST TO THE
VANCOUVER ISLAND TONIGHT. THE INHERITED GRIDS HANDLE THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST VERY WELL AND NO NEED TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESIDUAL LOW IN THE NORTH EASTERN
GULF WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE STORM IN THE WESTERN GULF BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...FORMING A TROUGH AND PASSING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AHN

.LONG RANGE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE LONG RANGE. CONSISTENCY REMAINS DECENT AS WELL...WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES EXCEPT A FEW TWEAKS THIS WEEKEND.

UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SINK
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF.  THIS RIDGE FLATTENS AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
A STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE LATE FRIDAY AND MOVES ALONG THE JET
INTO THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT.  A SECOND LOW MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF ON MONDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.  A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL
CLIP THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND BRING CHANCE SNOW.  FRIDAY AND
SATURDAYS ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TO MAINLY THE COASTAL ZONES.  OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN YUKON WILL KEEP
COLD OUTFLOW NORTHERLY WINDS TO KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY.
ONCE THE PATTERN CHANGES SATURDAY NIGHT...SOMEWHAT WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL FLIP ON.  COULD SEE SOME
SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AKZ018>019.
      ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY AKZ025.

MARINE...GALE WARNING PKZ012.
      ...SMALL CRAFT ALL REMAINING MARINE ZONES.
      ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY PKZ011>013-031-034-035.