Gale Warning 48, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST SUN JAN 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE WITH CLEAR SKIES BUT THERE IS SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD. THERE IS A VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE YUKON ATTM PRODUCING VERY STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. TAKU WINDS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU ARE
HAPPENING ATTM WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH...THESE VERY STRONG WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY NOON BUT STRONG GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE MARINE WATERS...THERE IS STORM FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE AND GALES
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
GUSTS TO 60KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES AND NEAR CROSS SOUND BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THE STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE HIGH
SLIDES SE INTO BC THROUGH MON AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF DRIFTS EAST. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF BY TONIGHT BUT WILL SLIDE SE MONDAY AS A UPPER TROF DEVELOPS
INTO A LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS
TO THE EAST THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
EXPIRING THE WINDS ADVY OVER THE PAYA AREA...THE WESTERN ZONES
OVER THE PANHANDLE AND MAYBE THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AT 6 PM. THE
WILL EXTEND THE ADVY FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
LATE MON MORNING. WILL KEEP GALES MORE MOST MARINE AREAS BUT WILL
DIMINISH THEM IN NORTH/SOUTH CHANNELS THROUGH MON. ALL CHANNELS
ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS WILL SEE GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

TEMPS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD AND THERE WILL
BE SOME AREAS OF WIND CHILLS TO 25 BELOW IN WINDY AREAS. TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLES DIGITS TO 15 BELOW IN WIND SHELTERED
AREAS AS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVER THE AREAS
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RADIATIVE COOLING. TEMPS WILL WARM SOME
THROUGH MON BUT STILL THINK MOST PLACES WILL NOT GET TO 20
DEGREES.

A TROF SW OF KODIAK WILL DEVELOP INTO A 988MB LOW IN THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF BY MON AFTERNOON AND SEND A WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT
NEAR PAYA. SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THAT AREA
AND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MON. ABJ

.LONG RANGE...THE ANCHORED ARCTIC HIGH EAST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL
MAINTAIN COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. A
COUPLE OF LOWS WILL PASS NEAR THE AREA BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED TO
MODIFY THIS COLD AIR MASS. A SLOW MODIFICATION OF THIS COLD AIR
IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT
AS IT TILT A LITTLE NEGATIVELY AND A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LOW
MOVE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE WEAKENING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH EASTERN
GULF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL SOUTH TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW
ENTERING THE WESTERN GULF EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ALONG 50N AND
APPROACH SOUTH OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES BY LATE THURSDAY...IN
WHICH TIME A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF...MAKING A TELE CONNECTION AS A TROUGH TO THE LOW IN THE
SOUTH. THIS SYNOPTIC SETTING WILL SLOWLY MODIFY THE COLD AIR IN
THE EAST GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND PUSHING FARTHER EAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THE WEAK LOW IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
SUNDAY. AHN

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HI WIND WARN...AZK25 THRU NOON.
      ...WINTER WEATHER ADVY...AKZ18 19 THRU 3PM.
      ...WIND ADVY...AKZ17 20>24 26>29 THRU 6PM.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...PKZ12 13 31.
      ...GALE...PKZ51 41>43 11 21 22 32>36.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1136 AM AST SUN JAN 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  SKAGWAY                 59.52N 135.34W
01/27/2008  M52 MPH                             AK   ASOS

            HIGHEST WINDS SO FAR TODAY WERE AT 4 AM 02015G26MPH WITH
            A PEAK WIND TO 52 MPH. AT 10 AM WINDS WERE 03024G41MPH.

1113 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  ELFIN COVE              58.19N 136.34W
01/27/2008  M40 MPH                             AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            HIGHEST WINDS REPORTED SO FAR TODAY WAS 36023G41MPH AT 9
            AM. THE SEAPLANE BASE HAD ESTIMATED WIND AT THE SAME TIME
            OF 03023G46MPH.

1113 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  PORT ALEXANDER          56.22N 134.63W
01/27/2008  E46 MPH                             AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            HIGHEST WINDS SO FAR TODAY 02029G46MPH AT 9 AM. AT 11 AM
            WINDS WERE 02025G45MPH.

1113 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  KLAWOCK                 55.55N 133.09W
01/27/2008  M38 MPH                             AK   AWOS

            HIGHEST WINDS SO FAR TODAY WERE 03017G29MPH WITH A PEAK
            WIND TO 38 MPH AT 8 AM.

1113 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  5 S DOUGLAS             58.20N 134.40W
01/27/2008  M49 MPH                             AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            HIGHEST WINDS SO FAR TODAY WERE 49MPH THAT OCCURRED A FEW
            TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 20Z WINDS WERE 23005G35MPH
            WITH A PEAK WIND TO 45MPH.

1113 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  3 S DOUGLAS             58.23N 134.40W
01/27/2008  M76 MPH                             AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            SOUTH DOUGLAS ISLAND REPORTED WINDS AT 324 AM OF
            30012G36MPH WITH A PEAK WIND TO 76MPH. WINDS AT 11 AM
            WERE 32013G18MPH WITH A PEAK WIND TO 46MPH.

1113 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  JUNEAU                  58.39N 134.13W
01/27/2008  M47 MPH                             AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            JUNEAU FEDERAL BUILDING HAD THEIR HIGHEST WINDS SO FAR
            TODAY AT 7 AM WITH 18G43MPH PEAK WIND TO 47MPH. AT 11 AM
            WINDS WERE 07G21MPH WITH A PEAK WIND OF 30MPH. DIRECTION
            IS OTS AT THIS SITE.

1113 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  JUNEAU                  58.39N 134.13W
01/27/2008  M68 MPH                             AK   PUBLIC

            MOUNT ROBERTS REPORTED THEIR HIGHEST WINDS SO FAR TODAY
            AT AROUND 6 AM OF 35012G52MPH WITH A PEAK WIND TO 68MPH.
            AT 11 AM WINDS WERE 36010G41MPH WITH A PEAK WIND TO
            55MPH.

&&

KAV