Gale Warning 391, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
113 PM AKST THU NOV 27 2008

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG JET STREAM OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC
AROUND 180 KT IS DRIVING BOWED OUT SECTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF AT ABOUT 51KT THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE THE
FRONT BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE THAT REGION BY EARLY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO WORK THROUGH THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THAN THE SOUTHERN DOES BUT HE MAIN FRONT
SHOULD BE THROUGH THERE FRIDAY MORNING.

 WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING FRONT THE BURST OF WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. AT THE PRESENT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
OVER 35 MPH FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF 22-23-27 AND PROBABLY 28. SO
HAVE NOT RAISED THE ADVISORY FLAG FOR THEM...THEY COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS THAT DO REACH 40 BUT THINK MOST WILL STAY BELOW THAT LEVEL.

 ALSO FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON A UPPER TROUGH/VORTICITY LOBE MOVES
ONSHORE OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE...WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. WILL MENTION
ISOLATED FOR OUTER COAST OF BARANOF AND CHICHAGOF ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS WITH A WEAKENING 985 MB LOW MOVING
N INTO CENTRAL AK AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W GULF. STRONG SW
FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE PANHANDLE ENABLING SHOWERS TO MOVE
ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF SAT NIGHT REACHING THE PANHANDLE SUN NIGHT. A
DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE N PAC WILL MOVE NE TOWARDS THE CHARLOTTES
ON SUN.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS IMPROVING FROM RUN TO RUN.
THE GFS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH SUN. BEGINNING SUN
NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE INTENSITY OF THE DEVELOPING
WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE N PAC LATE SUN/EARLY MON WITH THE GFS
BEING SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND A LITTLE BIT MORE ORGANIZED. BLENDED
THE 12Z ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH DAY 5 THEN WENT WITH
HPC GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W GULF PUSHES EASTWARD SUN AS A BUILDING
RIDGE FILLS IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SW FLOW TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALLOWING FOR THE LARGE SWELL TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH MON. SOME COLD AIR COULD ADVECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
SUN AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SNOW FOR THAT AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES MONDAY AS THE DEVELOPING WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CHARLOTTES
AND INTO WESTERN B.C. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO CANADA MON NIGHT AS
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD ITS PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-032>036-041-042.

BEZENEK/MAM