Gale Warning 368, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1145 AM AKST WED NOV 19 2008

.ANALYSIS...
EASTERN N PACIFIC UNDER MORE OF A MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN. STRONG
JET OFF ASIA SPLITS AROUND 170E DRIVEN BY MAJOR UPR LOW OVR
NORTHERN JAPAN. UNUSUAL UPR RIDGE OVER BERING SEA WITH NEXT MAJOR
UPR LOW CENTERED NEAR 50N 150W OVER WEIRD SFC COMPLEX. TROPICAL
LOOKING SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 41N 172W AT 18Z. AT LEAST 4 SFC LOW
CENTERS IN OUR EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM INCLUDING WILD COLD TOP CU
CLUSTER CENTERED 41N 142W. LONG S-SW FETCH 35N TO PANHANDLE.

.SHORT RANGE...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVER ENTIRE GULF OF ALASKA AND
NORTHERN PACIFIC TODAY...A VERY COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE BACK SIDE OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE. NORTHERNMOST LOW
LOCATED NEAR 55N 150W WITH OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPING AROUND LOW AND
THEN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OFF OF SE PANHANDLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS APPROACH OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS. ANY
SUNLIGHT TODAY WILL BE FILTERED WITH HIGH OVERCAST THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER AS THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN
APPROACHES THE COAST BY LATE EVENING.

PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MULTIPLE GULF LOWS (995MB) AND AND
A 1042MB HIGH IN THE NW TERRITORIES IS SETTING UP A SIGNIFICANT
400 IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. INHERITED WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONE 18
FROM NOON TODAY TO 6PM AKST THURSDAY STILL ON TRACK. WIND
ADVISORY FOR ZONE 17 IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6
PM AKST THURSDAY LOOKS SOLID IN MODEL DATA...BUT WITH FEW DATA
OBS WILL BE HARD TO VERIFY.

.LONG TERM...
ALL 12Z OPS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CRASH A LOWER 980S LOW INTO THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTES BETWEEN 18-23Z ON FRIDAY. PREFER 12Z UKMET ON
00Z SAT PROG DUE TO MAIN OLD LOW MORE NW TOWARD PACV. BY 00Z SUN
THE OPS MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SPREADS BECOME LARGE. ONE HAS TO
ASSUME THAT THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL BE BACK AROUND KODIAK ISLAND
BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF ABOUT DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF.
WILL LEAVE THE GRIDS ALONE AFTER 00Z SAT DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADV AKZ017 & 018.
MARINE...GALE PKZ012-013-022-041>043-051-052.
         SMCR PKZ011-021-031>036.

CCC/JCC