Gale Warning 367, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 200456 AAA
CWFAEG
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
800 PM AKST WED NOV 19 2008 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-201400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF  LATE TONIGHT.
A FRONT WILL MOVE N OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THU. A GALE FORCE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS ON FRI. 
$$

PKZ041-201400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
800 PM AKST WED NOV 19 2008 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DECREASING LATE. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...WIND BECOMING NW AND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
$$

PKZ042-201400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
800 PM AKST WED NOV 19 2008 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
$$

PKZ043-201400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
800 PM AKST WED NOV 19 2008 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. NE GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
$$

PKZ051-201400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
800 PM AKST WED NOV 19 2008 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. NE GUSTS TO
55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. NE GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING
TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
$$

PKZ052-201400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
800 PM AKST WED NOV 19 2008 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. NE GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. NE GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING
TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 201239
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2008 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-210100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FRONT WILL MOVE N OVER THE PANHANDLE THU NIGHT. A STRONG
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS ON FRI.

$$

PKZ041-210100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
S SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-210100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-210100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2008 

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING
TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-210100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2008 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN LATE.
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-210100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2008 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT LATE. RAIN
IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 201943 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1035 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2008 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-210100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FRONT WILL MOVE N OVER THE PANHANDLE THU NIGHT. A STRONG
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS ON FRI.

$$

PKZ041-210100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1035 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2008 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-210100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1035 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2008 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN.

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-210100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1035 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2008 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING
TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-210100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1035 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2008 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN LATE.
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-210100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1035 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2008 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT LATE. RAIN
IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1145 AM AKST WED NOV 19 2008

.ANALYSIS...
EASTERN N PACIFIC UNDER MORE OF A MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN. STRONG
JET OFF ASIA SPLITS AROUND 170E DRIVEN BY MAJOR UPR LOW OVR
NORTHERN JAPAN. UNUSUAL UPR RIDGE OVER BERING SEA WITH NEXT MAJOR
UPR LOW CENTERED NEAR 50N 150W OVER WEIRD SFC COMPLEX. TROPICAL
LOOKING SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 41N 172W AT 18Z. AT LEAST 4 SFC LOW
CENTERS IN OUR EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM INCLUDING WILD COLD TOP CU
CLUSTER CENTERED 41N 142W. LONG S-SW FETCH 35N TO PANHANDLE.

.SHORT RANGE...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVER ENTIRE GULF OF ALASKA AND
NORTHERN PACIFIC TODAY...A VERY COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE BACK SIDE OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE. NORTHERNMOST LOW
LOCATED NEAR 55N 150W WITH OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPING AROUND LOW AND
THEN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OFF OF SE PANHANDLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS APPROACH OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS. ANY
SUNLIGHT TODAY WILL BE FILTERED WITH HIGH OVERCAST THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER AS THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN
APPROACHES THE COAST BY LATE EVENING.

PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MULTIPLE GULF LOWS (995MB) AND AND
A 1042MB HIGH IN THE NW TERRITORIES IS SETTING UP A SIGNIFICANT
400 IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. INHERITED WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONE 18
FROM NOON TODAY TO 6PM AKST THURSDAY STILL ON TRACK. WIND
ADVISORY FOR ZONE 17 IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6
PM AKST THURSDAY LOOKS SOLID IN MODEL DATA...BUT WITH FEW DATA
OBS WILL BE HARD TO VERIFY.

.LONG TERM...
ALL 12Z OPS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CRASH A LOWER 980S LOW INTO THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTES BETWEEN 18-23Z ON FRIDAY. PREFER 12Z UKMET ON
00Z SAT PROG DUE TO MAIN OLD LOW MORE NW TOWARD PACV. BY 00Z SUN
THE OPS MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SPREADS BECOME LARGE. ONE HAS TO
ASSUME THAT THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL BE BACK AROUND KODIAK ISLAND
BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF ABOUT DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF.
WILL LEAVE THE GRIDS ALONE AFTER 00Z SAT DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADV AKZ017 & 018.
MARINE...GALE PKZ012-013-022-041>043-051-052.
         SMCR PKZ011-021-031>036.

CCC/JCC