Gale Warning 24, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST WED JAN 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...

.SHORT RANGE...A WEAKENING SURFACE TROF OVER THE EASTERN GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF IS
GENERATING NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LOOKING AT AREA WEB CAMS THE STRONGER SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOWING UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. TEMPS ARE ON THE RISE AS MOST STATIONS
ATTM ARE REPORTING  ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BUT DEW POINTS RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 32. SO THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS THAT
WILL MIX WITH SOME RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY AREA THAT
IS WELL BELOW FREEZING IS THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. THE
HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR THE HAINES AREA IS OUT UNTIL 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM IS LOOKS LIKE THE RATES HAVE FALLEN OFF SOME OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SO THINK THE EVENT WILL BE OVER BY 1
PM...BUT WITH THESES SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS WILL NEED TO KEEP TRACK OF THEM TO SEE IF THEM MOVE OVER
THE HAINES AREA. THERE IS SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS BUT AS THE SHOWERS DIMINISH THROUGH TIME THESE
WINDS WILL DO THE SAME.

THIS TROF WILL BE CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CANADA THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT A
HEAD OF A UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST GULF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE PANHANDLE AS THERE WILL STILL BE AN ONSHORE COMPONENT
ALOFT TO KEEP SOME SHOWERS MOVING INLAND. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. THE CENTRAL
AREAS WILL SEE THESE SHOWERS BECOME CAPPED AS THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL INHIBIT ANY STRONG SHOWERS BUT THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS. THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE LATE EVENING AS A WEATHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BUT WILL CHANGE TO RAIN BY LATE TONIGHT AND RAIN ALL
RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO WIND ADVY
LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THE WINDS REMAINING THE
STRONGEST ALONG THE ZONE 27 THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS MOST OF THE ENERGY
AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF FREDRICK SOUND.

.LONG RANGE...GRIDS HAVE AN UPDATE OF GFS 40 THROUGH 12Z MON SO LITTLE
CHANGE TO FCST PKG THROUGH THAT TIME...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS RAPIDLY
SPREAD OUT THRFTR.  HPC DESCRIBES LARGE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE CYCLONE
FEATURES ENTERING THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TUE...AND MENTIONS THE
IMPORTANCE FOR OUR DOMAIN...LARGE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.  A LARGE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION SPREAD IS OCCURRING

SOME CLARIFICATION OF NAMES IS GIVEN HERE...THE GFS MODEL STILL
EXISTS BUT THE EMSEMBLE METHOD NOW HAS BOTH GFS AND CANADIAN MEMBERS.
WHAT WAS CALLED THE GFS ENSEMBLE HAS BEEN REPLACED BY THE NORTH AMERICAN
ENSEMBLE FORECAST...SO THE NEW ABREVIATION WILL SHOW UP AS NAEFS OR
POSSIBLY THE NAEF.  THE NAEFS IS A JOINT PROJECT BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) AND THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA (MSC).

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HEAVY SNOW WARN...AKZ19

MARINE...GALE...PKZ51 43 41
         SCA...PKZ52 11 21 22 36

ABJ /