Gale Warning 22, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST TUE JAN 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...

.SHORT RANGE...THE LOW NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE CONTINUES TO ELONGATE
AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING. FRONTAL BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY GUSTS WILL END FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS THE LOW WEAKENS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE WIND ADVISORIES ARE STRONG
GUSTS WITH THE FRONTAL BANDS ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS AND
OUTFLOW WINDS WITHIN THE INNER CHANNELS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. MAY EXTEND INTERIOR WIND ADVISORIES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE OUTFLOW WINDS. GALES ALONG AND NEAR THE COASTAL REGIONS
WILL DIMINISH INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE REGIONS
WILL WEAKEN AND TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

BOTH THE UKMET AND GFS INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING WITH THE
UKMET INITIALIZING BETTER WITH THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY WRAPPING
IN THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW NEAR 50/135. GFS PHASED THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES MORE AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE AND
THEREFORE SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN OVERALL. THEREFORE THE UKMET
TIMING WAS PREFERRED AS SATELLITE REPRESENTATION DOES SHOW THE
PHASING OCCURRING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH EASTERLY FLOW BEING DOMINANT AT ALL
LEVELS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE ONSHORE THROUGHOUT THE PANHANDLE AND BY THAT TIME
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD ALL THE WAY UP TO YAKUTAT.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...EXPECT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BANDS PUSH NORTHWARD.
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A PUSH OF WARMER MID LEVEL AIR.
BUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSHES BACK
INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

.LONG RANGE...00Z THU A 982 MB PARENT LOW 800 NM S OF SEWARD
WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT SENDS A DEVELOPING TRIPLE PT LOW NE
THOUGH A PT 600 NM S OF YAKUTAT.  THE TRIPLE PT LOW WILL
REACH THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS ABT 00Z FRI AS 986 MB.
THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE OF THIS LOW WILL WEAKENED
BY THE DOWNSLOPE GENERATED IN THE PANHANDLE BY THIS LOW.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SPREAD OUT THRFTR.

GFS OPPERATIONAL FROM 12Z SHOWS A 969 MB LOW 600 NM S OF
YAKUTAT 00Z SAT THAT IS TRACKING NNE.  THE FORECAST PACKAGE
WILL LARGELY USE STATISTICAL METHODS AS THE GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING PROBLEMS DEPICTED BY THE HPC ALAKSA DISCUSSION.

ECMWF TO GFS SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS FOR THIS LOW ARE 400 NM
APART AT 00Z SAT.  LARGE RUN TO RUN MODEL SPREAD...AND LARGE
SPREAD OF THE NCEP MLSP NORMALIZED ENSEMBLE ARE ALSO OCCURRING.

TEMPERATURE AND POP FORECASTS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM WHAT IS
IN EFFECT...INCLUDING THE RAIN AT LEAST MIXED IN FOR THE
SRN 2/3DS OF THE PNHDLE FRI ONWARD.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY PKZ017-018-022-023-025>029

MARINE...GALE WARNING PKZ022-033-035-036-041>043
      ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034

PSS/ABJ JT