Gale Warning 119, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT TUE MAR 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...MODELS ALL INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL THIS
MORNING WITH GFS DOING THE BEST JOB DEPICTING THE JET CORE
BETWEEN 40N AND 50N. USED GFS FOR GRIDS. A MAJORITY OF THE
THICKER OVERCAST LAYER IS NOW OVER THE PANHANDLE AND TRACKING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF OPEN CELL
CUMULUS OVER WATER INDICATING COLD AIR AND INSTABILITY. THERE HAS
ALREADY BEEN LIGHTNING DETECTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN CHARLOTTE
SOUND NORTH OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BUT NOTHING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE PANHANDLE SO FAR. LIFTED INDICES ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/THUNDER ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER
COAST...SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT AND FREDERICK SOUND. HAVE NOT PUT
ANY REFERENCE TO THUNDER IN THE ZONES OR MARINES SO FAR AS THE
NUMBERS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AND THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FOR
INCREASED STABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY CHANGES.

LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO COOL DOWN OVER THE COURSE OF
THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD AS AIR ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CIRCULATION REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AS SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUND THE TROUGH AND
HEAD FOR THE PANHANDLE. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP SEAK IN A MOIST
ONSHORE ENVIRONMENT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PERIODICALLY
ENHANCE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SO FAR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW
ADVISORY ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM BUT HAVE NOT LOOKED CLOSELY AT
THOSE GRIDS YET.

IN TERMS OF WIND...FAIRLY UNIFORM SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BUT AM STILL ANTICIPATING
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR RESIDUAL SEAS. ON THE
INSIDE...SOUTHEAST SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER CLARENCE STRAIT SHOULD
WIND DOWN TONIGHT AND STAY BELOW 25 KTS TOMORROW. FCF

.LONG RANGE...AS THE ANCHOR OF LONG WAVE HAS BROKEN OVER THE
ASIA...THE LONG WAVE AXIS RETURNS TO EAST ACROSS THE ALASKA
REGION. WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE WAVE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH STALLING LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE
END OF LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WILL USE THE LATEST GFS40 AND
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS PRIMARILY. THE LOW ENTERING THE CENTRAL GULF
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SERIES OF FRONTS OVER ITS
EASTERN PERIPHERY TO THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH PERSISTING ONSHORE
FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA WET. AS THE FIRST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
OFFSHORE AND OUTSIDE WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF INSIDE
CHANNELS. MAY NEED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT ALSO LOOKS LIKE TO BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SPRING EQUINOX IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER BUT
THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR MORE SNOW ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE
SOUTH AND COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AHN

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...SMCR PKZ022-036-041>043-051>052