Wind Chill Advisory 62, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
251 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH FIRST 48 HOURS NOW. THE NAM HAS AT LEAST
BOUGHT OFF ON THE GFS SOLUTION AND AND THE ECMWF IS NOW TRACKING
VERY SIMILAR IN THE SHORT TERM. GFS MODEL TO MODEL RUN CONTINUES
TO BE PRETTY CONSISTENT. THE NAM IS ALL OVER THE PLACE.

AFTER 30 HOURS THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WIDELY DISAGREE ON LOW IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. THE ECMWF BY FAR IS THE WARMEST
AND EXTENDS OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH FAIRBANKS.
DISAGREE WITH THAT SOLUTION BECAUSE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA AT THE SAME TIME. AT 60 HOURS NO MODEL IS ANYWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OTHERS. THEREFORE SINCE THE GFS HAS BEEN SO CONSISTENT AND
HAS DONE WELL THUS FAR...WILL OPT TO GO WITH GFS SOLUTION.

UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT IN THE QUICK SUPPLY OF COLD AIR
WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE STATE AND END UP NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT
BY EARLY WED MORNING. THIS WILL PULL A LARGE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE...LARGE NORTH PACIFIC LOW
WILL PUSH ITS OCCLUDED FRONT TO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE WEST COAST BY WED AFTERNOON. BY LATE WED NIGHT THE NEXT FRONT
FROM THE SAME COMPLEX LOW MOVES EASTWARD AND BEGINS TO GENERATE
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE THAT WILL
LIKELY USHER IN DECENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY DECENT
SNOWFALL IN THE INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEST COAST FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHWARD WILL SEE STRONG
WINDS DEVELOP WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN THE LOW IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS
SCENARIO WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

THE ARCTIC COAST WILL STAY OUT OF MOST OF THE ACTION. WINDS WILL
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THAT AREA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ220.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225.
&&

CF DEC 08