Gale Warning 12, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
143 PM AST MON JAN 21 2008

.DISCUSSION...BUSY BAROCLINIC WEATHER CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN
ALASKA WITH CLASSIC PATTERN OF 500 MB RIDGING COVERS EASTERN GULF
OF ALASKA...AND BROAD BAG OF LOW HEIGHTS COVERS THE BERING SEA.
WEST COAST OF ALASKA IS THUS IN THE RACE TRACK FOR SHORT WAVES
MOVING NORTHWARD. LATEST SUCH SHORT WAVE TAKES FORM OF A 981 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS...MOVING TO MACKENZIE BAY BY WED
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENING. THEREAFTER THE STEERING FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL SO THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FEATURE COMING LATE IN
THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF 60N AND MOVE FROM THE BERING SEA
TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
EACH OTHER AND WITH THEMSELVES RUN TO RUN REGARDING TODAYS SHORT
WAVE...SO CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE IS HIGH.

WEST COAST...LOTS OF WARM ADVECTION IN PROGRESS WITH COMING OF THE
LOW. SO MUCH WARM ADVECTION THAT TEMPERATURES IN SEVERAL ZONES
ALREADY RISING ABOVE FREEZING...SO THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW IS
COLLAPSING IN THOSE AREAS. ZONE 213 WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD AIR AND IS
BEST POSITIONED TO GET HIT HARDEST BY THIS LOW. WE WILL UPGRADE
THE BLIZZARD WATCH TO A WARNING THERE. FURTHER INLAND...NULATO
HILLS IN ZONE 216 AND ALL OF ZONE 217 COULD SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SO WE WILL ISSUE ADVISORIES THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
STAY BELOW FREEZING IN NORTHWEST ALASKA...AND NORTHERN ZONE 207
LOOKS POISED TO HAVE ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR BLOWING
SNOW...SPECIFICALLY POINT HOPE AND KIVALINA. AND ONE LAST ITEM IS
POSSIBLE BLIZZARD FOR ZONE 210 AT DEERING ON THE COLD ADVECTION
SIDE ONCE THE LOW PASSES BY THEM TUE NIGHT. THIS ASPECT OF THE
EVENT IS LESS CERTAIN...SO WE WILL TAKE NO ACTION THERE FOR NOW.

ARCTIC COAST...BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS EVENT WILL COME WED WHEN
THE SURFACE LOW DROPS INTO MACKENZIE BAY AND IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ROARS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS A RECIPE FOR A
BLIZZARD IN ZONE 204...ESPECIALLY IF SOME NEW SNOW WILL FALL FROM
THE LOW. WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR 204. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
ZONE 203 WILL ALSO NEED A BLIZZARD WATCH...BUT THAT IS LESS
CERTAIN SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

INTERIOR...WIND EVENT FOR ALASKA RANGE PASSES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT
AND TUE BEFORE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER PASSAGE OF
TROUGH ALOFT. MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR MAY COME TUE
AND TUE NIGHT IN ZONE 218 WITH HELP FROM UPSLOPE LIFTING...LOOKS
LIKE POSSIBLE ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENT BUT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN
TIME TO ISSUE ADVISORY THERE. FOG IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA SHOULD MIX
OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS PICK UP IN
RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SUN HAS MADE A LOT
OF PROGRESS IN THE LAST MONTH BUT IT IS STILL TOO FEEBLE TO MIX
OUT THE LOW STRATUS LAYER WITHOUT MECHANICAL HELP. COLDER WEATHER
ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK AS THE STEERING FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS LATEST EVENT BRINGS 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER FAIRBANKS DOWN TO
THE 20S C BELOW.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. SEA ICE SEEMS TO BE
HOLDING ADEQUATELY TO PROVIDE EFFECTIVE SHIELDING DESPITE THE
STORMS OVER THE WEST COAST DURING THE LAST WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ204.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ216-AKZ217.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

ES JAN 08