Brisk Wind Advisory 21, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK52 PAFG 221249
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
349 AM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-230400-
349 AM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 980 MB LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INLAND AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A 1037 MB HIGH WILL BUILD IN
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA ON WED.

$$

PKZ200-230400-
NORTON SOUND-
349 AM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT BECOMING SW. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.WED...NW WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-230400-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
349 AM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.WED...NW WINDS 20 KT BECOMING SW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 40 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-230400-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
349 AM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.WED...NW WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT BECOMING S. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-230400-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
349 AM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...EAST OF SHISHMAREF SE 35 KT BECOMING N LATE. WEST OF
SHISHMAREF N WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.WED...NW WINDS 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM
OR LESS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

JK/CB JAN 08

000
FZAK52 PAFG 222341
CWFWCZ

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
241 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-231630-
241 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 982 MB LOW OVER THE NOATAK VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO BE NEAR
CAPE HALKETT AT MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND CHUKCHI SEAS BEHIND THE LOW.

$$

PKZ200-231630-
NORTON SOUND-
241 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT EARLY WED MORNING. 
BLOWING SNOW.
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT.   
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT.   
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.   
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.   
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT.   
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT.   
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT.   
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-231630-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
241 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 35 KT BECOMING W AND DECREASING...TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT...EXCEPT SE WINDS
20 KT NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.   
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.   
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT.   
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT.   
.SAT...E WINDS 40 KT.   
.SUN...E WINDS 40 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-231630-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
241 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.  
.WED...W WINDS 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER NOON. BLOWING SNOW.  
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT.   
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT.   
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT.   
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT.   
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT.   
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT.   
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-231630-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
241 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT BECOMING W TUE EVENING. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED...SW WINDS 20 KT.   
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.   
.THU...S WINDS 15 KT BECOMING N.   
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.   
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT.   
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT.   
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT.   
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

CF/DJH JAN 08

000
FZAK52 PAFG 231202
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
302 AM AST WED JAN 23 2008

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-240345-
302 AM AST WED JAN 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 982 MB LOW 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF BARROW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE 
BEAUFORT SEA TODAY. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TO 1007 MB NEAR BANKS
ISLAND BY 3 AM THURS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO 
THE BERING SEA TODAY.

$$

PKZ200-240345-
NORTON SOUND-
302 AM AST WED JAN 23 2008

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-240345-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
302 AM AST WED JAN 23 2008

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT BECOMING S.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT...EXCEPT S WINDS
20 KT NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-240345-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
302 AM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT.  
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-240345-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
302 AM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...S WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

DA/CB JAN 08

000
FZAK52 PAFG 232223
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-241500-
123 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING EAST FROM SIBERIA ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WED AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THU MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT FROM A LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND NORTON
SOUND THU AND THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ200-241500-
NORTON SOUND-
123 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-241500-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
123 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.THU...E WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 40 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 45 KT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-241500-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
123 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-241500-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
123 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 35 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

CF/MAR JAN 08

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
143 PM AST MON JAN 21 2008

.DISCUSSION...BUSY BAROCLINIC WEATHER CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN
ALASKA WITH CLASSIC PATTERN OF 500 MB RIDGING COVERS EASTERN GULF
OF ALASKA...AND BROAD BAG OF LOW HEIGHTS COVERS THE BERING SEA.
WEST COAST OF ALASKA IS THUS IN THE RACE TRACK FOR SHORT WAVES
MOVING NORTHWARD. LATEST SUCH SHORT WAVE TAKES FORM OF A 981 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS...MOVING TO MACKENZIE BAY BY WED
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENING. THEREAFTER THE STEERING FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL SO THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FEATURE COMING LATE IN
THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF 60N AND MOVE FROM THE BERING SEA
TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
EACH OTHER AND WITH THEMSELVES RUN TO RUN REGARDING TODAYS SHORT
WAVE...SO CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE IS HIGH.

WEST COAST...LOTS OF WARM ADVECTION IN PROGRESS WITH COMING OF THE
LOW. SO MUCH WARM ADVECTION THAT TEMPERATURES IN SEVERAL ZONES
ALREADY RISING ABOVE FREEZING...SO THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW IS
COLLAPSING IN THOSE AREAS. ZONE 213 WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD AIR AND IS
BEST POSITIONED TO GET HIT HARDEST BY THIS LOW. WE WILL UPGRADE
THE BLIZZARD WATCH TO A WARNING THERE. FURTHER INLAND...NULATO
HILLS IN ZONE 216 AND ALL OF ZONE 217 COULD SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SO WE WILL ISSUE ADVISORIES THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
STAY BELOW FREEZING IN NORTHWEST ALASKA...AND NORTHERN ZONE 207
LOOKS POISED TO HAVE ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR BLOWING
SNOW...SPECIFICALLY POINT HOPE AND KIVALINA. AND ONE LAST ITEM IS
POSSIBLE BLIZZARD FOR ZONE 210 AT DEERING ON THE COLD ADVECTION
SIDE ONCE THE LOW PASSES BY THEM TUE NIGHT. THIS ASPECT OF THE
EVENT IS LESS CERTAIN...SO WE WILL TAKE NO ACTION THERE FOR NOW.

ARCTIC COAST...BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS EVENT WILL COME WED WHEN
THE SURFACE LOW DROPS INTO MACKENZIE BAY AND IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ROARS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS A RECIPE FOR A
BLIZZARD IN ZONE 204...ESPECIALLY IF SOME NEW SNOW WILL FALL FROM
THE LOW. WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR 204. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
ZONE 203 WILL ALSO NEED A BLIZZARD WATCH...BUT THAT IS LESS
CERTAIN SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

INTERIOR...WIND EVENT FOR ALASKA RANGE PASSES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT
AND TUE BEFORE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER PASSAGE OF
TROUGH ALOFT. MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR MAY COME TUE
AND TUE NIGHT IN ZONE 218 WITH HELP FROM UPSLOPE LIFTING...LOOKS
LIKE POSSIBLE ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENT BUT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN
TIME TO ISSUE ADVISORY THERE. FOG IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA SHOULD MIX
OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS PICK UP IN
RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SUN HAS MADE A LOT
OF PROGRESS IN THE LAST MONTH BUT IT IS STILL TOO FEEBLE TO MIX
OUT THE LOW STRATUS LAYER WITHOUT MECHANICAL HELP. COLDER WEATHER
ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK AS THE STEERING FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS LATEST EVENT BRINGS 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER FAIRBANKS DOWN TO
THE 20S C BELOW.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. SEA ICE SEEMS TO BE
HOLDING ADEQUATELY TO PROVIDE EFFECTIVE SHIELDING DESPITE THE
STORMS OVER THE WEST COAST DURING THE LAST WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ204.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ216-AKZ217.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

ES JAN 08