Brisk Wind Advisory 40, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
214 PM AST SAT FEB 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS NAM MODEL ANALYSIS WAS CLOSER TO THE
DATA THAN THE GSM ANALYSIS...WHICH INDICATED 500 MB HEIGHTS ON THE
LOW SIDE OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA. THIS DIFFERENCE DID NOT
RESULT IN ANY IMPORTANT DISAGREEMENT NEAR THE SURFACE. BOTH MODELS
FORECAST THE LOW ALOFT NOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR OF ALASKA
TO SHIFT LOCATION TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
EASTERN SEWARD PENINSULA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN END TO
THE COLD SPELL STARTING MONDAY...AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY.
THE CHANGE ON MONDAY WILL NOT BE DRASTIC...AS WOULD BE THE CASE
WITH A BIG CHINOOK...BUT WILL BRING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOVE
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN ALASKA. THE SEWARD
PENINSULA AND YUKON DELTA COASTS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ABOVE ZERO
READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS WARMER AIR ALOFT FLOWS IN OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE A REAL INFLUX OF CLOUDS AND PROBABLY
SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL DUE TO OVER RUNNING FROM THE SOUTH. TODAYS
POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS THIN CLOUD BANDS WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...AND A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE YUKON
DELTA AND OFFSHORE THE NORTON SOUND COAST. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST...THE ARCTIC IS LIKE THE
INTERIOR...COMPLETELY CLEAR. THE WINDY AREAS IN THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR AND THE DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS ZONES ARE BLURRED BY THE
WIND...WHICH IS MOST PREVALENT OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.

INFRARED SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR WERE AS FAR DOWN AS 50 TO 53 BELOW DEGREES C THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SINCE COME UP TO -40 TO -45 C. THUS...THERE HAS
NOT BEEN SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE JUST YET. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL PULLOUT
FROM THE COLD WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND REALLY SET IN BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. FROM THIS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF GOING BACK ANYTIME
SOON.

WIND CHILLS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA HAVE RETREATED BACK FROM
THRESHOLD LEVELS SO MOST OF THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELED. FOR
THE MOST PART TEMPERATURES HAVE COME UP JUST ENOUGH FOR THIS TO
HAPPEN...AND AS TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BACK DOWN.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ226.

WIND CHILL WARNING FOR AKZ201.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

TF FEB 08