Brisk Wind Advisory 14, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
557 AM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER ALASKA WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
BERING AND NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH
SAT AND THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST SUN INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR INTO
NEXT WEEK WHILE THE WEST AND ARCTIC COASTS ARE STORMY WITH
SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS, SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM
SAT INTO NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE FROM KOTZEBUE TO EAGLE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN TODAY. THERE ARE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS. A SECOND
SHORT WAVE FROM GAMBELL TO KING SALMON WILL MOVE TO KOTZEBUE TO
NORTHWAY BY 3PM FRI...TO WAINWRIGHT TO OLD CROW BY 3AM SAT AND
THEN NORTHEAST. EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
INLAND BUT MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE WEST COAST.

A STRONG LOW SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AS
A 958 LOW BY 3PM SAT AND TO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AS A 983 MB
LOW SUN. WILL SEE SOUTHEAST GALES AND SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL (4-8
INCHES) AHEAD OF THE LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST AND EXPECTED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO START OVER THE YUKON DELTA BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTH TO THE SEWARD PEN SAT AND TO THE WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN ZONES 214 AND
212 SAT ALONG THE FRONT BUT WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW LATE SAT SO
WILL BE ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE BLIZZARD.

THE POISONOUS TAIL PORTION OF THE WRAP AROUND OCCLUSION IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW COULD CAUSE EXTREME WINDS SUN IF GFS
SOLUTION OCCURS.

CHINOOK WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ALASKA RANGE SAT INTO SUN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE NAM INITIALIZES BETTER ON THE TWO SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER THE
INTERIOR TODAY AND IS PREFERRED IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS STILL
DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE STRONG LOW NORTH
INTO THE BERING SEA ON SAT. GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST AND FASTEST
BUT GIVEN THE VERY STRONG STRONG DYNAMICS WE ARE GOING WITH THE
GFS ON THIS FEATURE. ALL MODELS SHOW GALES IN ANY CASE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ213-AKZ214.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

JB JAN 08