Storm Warning 88, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 021249
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST SUN MAR 2 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-030300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-030300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST SUN MAR 2 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-030300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST SUN MAR 2 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. WINDS SE 30 KT S OF
CAINES HEAD DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THIS THIS MORNING. SEAS 3 FT EXCEPT
7 FT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-030300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST SUN MAR 2 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E TO SE WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-030300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST SUN MAR 2 2008

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-030300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST SUN MAR 2 2008

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 20
KT. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING. 
EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...S 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-030300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST SUN MAR 2 2008

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-030300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST SUN MAR 2 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E TO NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.  
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-030300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST SUN MAR 2 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-030300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST SUN MAR 2 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...E TO NE 15 KT BECOMING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
2 FT.  
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SAT MAR 1 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SMALL
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
BERING SEA WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR OF THE
STATE WEAKENS AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST AND
THE EASTERN GULF. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN WHICH HAS KEPT A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA ALSO SIGNS
OF WEAKENING.

AT THE SURFACE...THE INVASION OF COLD AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
HAS HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND
CREATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. THE COLD AIR ALSO
FORMED AN ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
SUSITNA VALLEY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND IS PUSHING WARMER, MOIST AIR ONTO THE COAST AND IS
PRODUCING SNOW ALONG THE FRONT.

EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA.
CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA ARE MAINLY DUE TO
THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH
TUESDAY WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA MOVES SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MONDAY THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL DEVELOP A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND TUESDAY.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...
A WARM OCCLUSION SOUTH OF THE GULF WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THE
ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION
WILL CONTINUE OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND
WEATHER FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE GULF MONDAY AFTERNOON
THEN SPREAD IT INTO THE GULF COAST MONDAY EVENING. AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR MONDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A MODERATE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
MOVE NORTH TO NEAR DILLINGHAM SUNDAY MORNING THEN DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES INLAND. SNOW ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL
BAY TONIGHT THEN BECOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR SUNDAY. A SECOND WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AKPEN
MONDAY MORNING AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE BERING SEA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN BERING AND THE WESTERL ALEUTIANS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHEAST BERING SEA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO MOSTLY RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
WILL BE  MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA, SO PRECIP WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW IN THESE
AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 140, 150, 172, 176, 179, 180, 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM MAR 08