Small Craft Advisory 188, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SUN MAR 2 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

PATTERN CHANGE IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
BERING AND RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST AK. AT THE SURFACE...A
LOW IS SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. A WEAK WEATHER FRONT IS MOVING ONSHORE
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY SIMILAR TO USE THE GFS IN THE FORECAST. ALL
AGREE THAT THE WEATHER FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST THIS MORNING...THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
NORTH OF THE AKPEN...AND THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MON AND INTO THE EASTERN BERING MON EVENING.
VARIOUS WAVES WILL THEN ROTATE AROUND THE BERING LOW INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY OFF THE ICE
EDGE. A BRIEF BREAK IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SECOND
ALEUTIAN LOW REPEATS THE PATTERN THIS EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING.
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN MAY CAUSE BLOWING
SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MON...BUT NOT BEFORE THE
POSSIBILITY OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE AKPEN AND PRIBILOFS. AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING TUE...COLD AIR SWEEPING AROUND
THE SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MID WEEK.

FOR SW AK...SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF FRONT WILL DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN THE SECOND LOW ARRIVES IN THE ALEUTIANS ON MON A
WEAK FRONT WILL AGAIN BRING SHOWERS TO SW AK THROUGH TUE. ON TUE A
WAVE MOVING AROUND WHAT WILL THEN BE THE BERING LOW BRINGS WARM
ADVECTION AND RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA TUE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
DURING MID WEEK BY SIGNIFICANT DRYING.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF
FRONT WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND. A WEAK WAVE MAY ALSO
TRIGGER SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL
BE A BREAK FOR MUCH OF MON UNTIL AN IMPULSE FROM THE BERING LOW
BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO COASTAL AREAS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT
ARRIVES TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND SNOW
SHOWERS INLAND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST....TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK A LOW MOVES OVER THE AKPEN
WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING. OVER SOUTHWEST
AK...THIS SAME SYSTEM ENDS THE WEEK WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. IN
THE EAST...FRONTAL PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF THU WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FRI.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCHES 181 195
MARINE...GALES 130 132 150 155 165 170 179 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...165 170 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS MAR 08