Storm Warning 66, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 131538 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
635 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

UPDATED ZONE 121

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-140300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 953 MB LOW 315 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE
OVER KODIAK ISLAND THU MORNING AT 973 MB AND THEN MOVE INLAND NEAR
CHINITNA POINT THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-140300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT THIS
MORNING. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-140300-
RESURRECTION BAY
635 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW BECOMING MIXED WITH 
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-140300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-140300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT THIS MORNING. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-140300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...BARREN ISLANDS AND WEST...NE WIND 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT
DIMINISHING TO 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS ENDING THIS
MORNING. 
EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS ...EAST WINDS 35 KT BECOMING SE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-140300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-140300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.  
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-140300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS BUILDING TO 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS
MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-140300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISHING 
TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 132357
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST WED FEB 13 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 963 MB LOW 225 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE OVER
KODIAK ISLAND THU MORNING AT 973 MB AND THEN MOVE INLAND NEAR
CHINITNA POINT THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-141500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-141500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-141500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-141500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-141500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-141500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 15 TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 15 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-141500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
50 KTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-141500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO SE 50 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF
TURNAGAIN ARM...GUSTS TO SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-141500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AST TUE FEB 12 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.
OCCLUSION HAS WRAPPED A FEW TIMES AROUND THE LOW CENTER. WINDS NORTH
OF THE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. LIGHT SNOW HAS ALSO BEGUN IN
DUTCH HARBOR. BLOWING SNOW QUICKLY DROPPED VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1
1/2 MILES. A BLIZZARD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A BLIZZARD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE TIP OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA. ONE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO COOK INLET AND INTO THE GULF. THIS AXIS IS
PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHCENTRAL. SNOW IS
FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL...BUT IS GRADUALLY ENDING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE
ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. THE UPPER
LEVELS HAVE DRIED OVER THIS AREA...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
FORM OF SUPER COOLED WATER DROPLETS ARE LEADING TO THE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE CLEARING LINE MOVING UP
THE INLET SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION WILL END
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH NORTH PACIFIC LOW
AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW TO KODIAK
ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SLIGHT DIVERGENCE IN LOW TRACKS
AS THE LOW THEN MOVES INLAND...BUT SOLUTIONS ARE CENTERED AROUND
COOK INLET...AND FORECAST WOULD VARY MUCH WITH ANY OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...SO DECIDED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE GFS TRACK. CONFIDENCE
QUICKLY DROPS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS MODEL SOLUTIONS RAPIDLY DIVERGE.
THEREFORE...WILL STICK CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST FROM THIS POINT
ONWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/AKPENN...THE PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
OCCLUDED FRONT PIVOTS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND ALASKA PENINSULA. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SO THEY WILL STAY ALL SNOW AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS PRECIPITATION INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING
AND WINDS INCREASE FURTHER. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA...COMING VERY CLOSE TO COLD BAY BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AREAS EAST OF COLD BAY WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IF COLD BAY STAYS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS EXPECTED LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BACK TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS THE FRONT
BACK EASTWARD. THIS WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION IN COLD BAY ALL SNOW
FOR THE EVENT. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES...SO EXPECT
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT...AND
MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH TEMPERATURE GETS.
WILL UPGRADE THE BLIZZARD WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA
ZONE AND SPECIFY MAINLY COLD BAY WESTWARD. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ALASKA PENINSULA. STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH CHANNELED
AREAS WEDNESDAY. THE ICE EDGE WILL ALSO CONTINUE ITS MARCH SOUTHWARD.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW WEAKENS OVER INLAND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AND REMAIN THERE
FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GALE FORCE EASTERLIES ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC LOW WILL
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
WARM AIR ALOFT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE DOWNSLOPE
DRYING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. FARTHER FROM
THE MOUNTAINS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AS LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINS BELOW FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FOR
NOW WILL ADD IN A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND EVALUATE NEW MODELS
AND LOCAL SOUNDINGS TONIGHT TO DETERMINE WHETHER ICE ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR. WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE ALL SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW. THERE IS THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT AT THIS
POINT LOOKS LIKE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THERE...WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST...SO WILL NOT ISSUE
A WATCH BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH NEW MODEL RUNS. COLD AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO ALL OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT CHANGING ALL
PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW. SNOW AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY END FRIDAY
AS THE LOW MOVES TO NORTHERN ALASKA.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE STORM SYSTEM. MOST AREAS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BEFORE WINDS COME UP. STRONG EASTERLIES WILL THEN
DEVELOP AS THE FRONT NEARS WEDNESDAY AND PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE DRYING
ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TURN
PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY RAIN FOR COASTAL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM AIR WILL ALSO MOVE OVER TOP OF THE SURFACE COLD LAYER
INLAND...SO PRECIPITATION AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY TURN TO RAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY AND LOW LEVELS MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN. COLD
AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT CHANGING ALL
PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW. ALSO EXPECT VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
KODIAK ISLAND WATERS AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTS BACK IN. SNOW WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY...BUT NEXT FRONT WILL BE ON THE WAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LONG-WAVE PATTERN OF TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
BERING AND RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEREFORE...STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
SIMILAR WITH LOWS TRACKING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THEN MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL KEEP THE BERING
COLD AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EVERY 2 TO 3 DAYS ALONG THE
STORM TRACK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 181 AND 185.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120 130 155 170 172.
         GALE WARNING 125 132 138 140 141 150 160 165 171 175 179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...130 138 140 141 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB FEB 08