Storm Warning 67, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Feb 13, 2008, 5:45 AM AKST (14:45 UTC)

Expired

Feb 13, 2008, 5:45 AM AKST

In force

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 131946 AAB
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1045 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

UPDATED ZONES 170, 171

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-140300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 953 MB LOW 315 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE OVER KODIAK
ISLAND THU MORNING AT 973 MB AND THEN MOVE INLAND NEAR CHINITNA 
POINT THU AFTERNOON. A 961 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 530 NM SOUTH OF 
SHEMYA THU MORNING AND THEN MOVE TO 460 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA THU
NIGHT AT 963 MB. 

$$

PKZ150-140300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
945 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-140300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
945 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-140300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SNOW. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-140300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-140300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-140300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
1045 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 28 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-140300-
UNALASKA BAY
1045 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-140300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 26 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-140300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-140300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-140300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-140300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
1045 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Feb 12, 11:10 PM AKST, 6 hours 35 minutes earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
410 AM AST WED FEB 13 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH NORTH PACIFIC LOW
AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW TO KODIAK
ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SLIGHT DIVERGENCE IN LOW TRACKS
AS THE LOW THEN MOVES INLAND...BUT SOLUTIONS ARE CENTERED AROUND
COOK INLET...AND FORECAST WOULD NOT VARY MUCH WITH ANY OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...SO DECIDED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE GFS TRACK. CONFIDENCE
QUICKLY DROPS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS MODEL SOLUTIONS RAPIDLY DIVERGE.
THEREFORE...WILL STICK CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST FROM THIS POINT
ONWARD.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...SATELLITE SHOWS A STRONG VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR. THIS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE PRIBILOFS. THE
OCCLUSION IS MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY..KODIAK ISLAND AND THE KENAI
PENINSULA WITH PRECIP PUSHING INLAND. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
SETTING UP OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE  OF THE STORM SYSTEM. MOST AREAS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE WINDS COME UP. EXPECT HEAVIER AMOUNTS WEST
OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS. STRONG
EASTERLIES WILL THEN DEVELOP AS THE FRONT NEARS TODAY AND PRODUCE
DOWNSLOPE DRYING ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TURN PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY RAIN FOR COASTAL AREAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR WILL ALSO MOVE OVER TOP OF THE SURFACE COLD
LAYER INLAND...SO PRECIPITATION AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY TURN TO RAIN
LATE TODAY AND LOW LEVELS MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN. COLD
AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT CHANGING ALL
PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW. ALSO EXPECT VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
KODIAK ISLAND WATERS AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTS BACK IN. SNOW WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY...BUT NEXT FRONT WILL BE ON THE WAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/AKPENN...EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE SYSTEM. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ALASKA PENINSULA. STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH CHANNELED
AREAS TODAY. THE ICE EDGE WILL ALSO CONTINUE ITS MARCH SOUTHWARD.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW WEAKENS OVER INLAND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AND REMAIN THERE
FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GALE FORCE EASTERLIES ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC LOW WILL
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
WARM AIR ALOFT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE DOWNSLOPE
DRYING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. FARTHER FROM
THE MOUNTAINS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AS LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINS BELOW FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FOR
NOW WILL ADD IN A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE ALL SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. MAY NEED BLIZZARD ALONG THE
COAST OF 161 AND 155. LOOKS LIKE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THERE...WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST.COLD AIR
WILL MOVE BACK INTO ALL OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT CHANGING
ALL PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW. SNOW AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY END
FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO NORTHERN ALASKA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LONG-WAVE PATTERN OF TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
BERING AND RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEREFORE...STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
SIMILAR WITH LOWS TRACKING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THEN MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL KEEP THE BERING
COLD AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EVERY 2 TO 3 DAYS ALONG THE
STORM TRACK. MODELS ARE WARMING THE INTERIOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
THIS IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN BELOW FREEZING TEMPS FOR
NOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 185 195
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 130 140 165 179 185
         STORMS 120 130 170 172
         GALES 125 132 138 140 141 150 155 160 165 171 175 176 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW FEB 08

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2008Every storm warning in 2008

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.