Storm Warning 44, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 100028
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST SAT FEB 9 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-101500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 972 MB LOW NEAR 56N 149W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 59N 146W AND WEAKEN TO
984 MB SUN AFTERNOON THEN WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. A 975 MB LOW NEAR 49N 157W SUN AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN TO
983 MB AS IT MERGES WITH LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-101500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AST SAT FEB 9 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW TO W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-101500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AST SAT FEB 9 2008

.TONIGHT...EAST OF 148W...SW WIND 35 KT SEAS 21 FT. WEST OF 
148W...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...S TO SW WIND 40 TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 TO 29 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
430 PM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM AND GFS HAD THE BEST INITIALIZATION OF THE
LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. FRONTAL POSITION WAS ALSO VERY
GOOD FOR THE NAM AND GFS. THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE TOO FAR TO THE EAST.
AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GULF THE TWO EUROPEAN MODELS PUSH IT
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WHILE THE NAM AND GFS
ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING THE TRACK. NO REASON TO THINK
THERE SHOULD BE A CHANCE AND THE INITIALIZATIONS WERE BETTER ON THE
GFS AND NAM SO THOSE ARE THE MODELS BEING USED FOR THIS LOW.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE JET STREAM AT 250 MB REMAINS ZONAL
COMING OUT OF ASIA BETWEEN 30N AND 40N AND CONTINUING TO AROUND 160W.

IT THEN WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AND BENDS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA BEFORE HEADING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR PERSISTS. THIS RIDGE
EXTENDS INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA AND IS BLOCKING THE LOWS FROM MOVING
INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. ONCE THE LOWS LOSE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM
THE JET STREAM AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD THEY CANNOT PUSH INTO THE
RIDGE. THIS IS THE CASE WITH THE LARGE LOW SOUTH OF ATTU THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL ONLY MOVE ABOUT 200 MILES BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE KEEPS IT FROM MOVING NORTHWARD AND THE JET
STREAM DEVELOPS A NEW LOW WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS LOW ON
SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES IT TOWARD THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS A LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND THAT IS MOVING TOWARD THE GULF.
THIS LOW IS BRINGING SOME SNOW AND WIND INTO KODIAK TODAY AND THAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW WILL BE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS
THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MOVING INTO KODIAK. WITHOUT ANY RADAR OR
OBSERVATIONS OF VISIBILITIES OR PRECIPITATION BETWEEN KODIAK ISLAND
AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON THE
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND HOW IT MAY IMPACT VISIBILITIES ON
KODIAK. MODEL DATA SHOWS THE GREATEST AREAS OF LIFTING AND
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND AND THE
FORECAST INDICATES THAT. HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON KODIAK
AND THIS SITUATION SHOULD BE MONITORED BY PERSONS THERE OR WHO WISH
TO TRAVEL THERE OVER THE NEXT DAY.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AGAIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR AWHILE.
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOME AS A RESULT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 130 138 155 176.
         STORM 132 150.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120-150 160 165 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 08