Storm Warning 59, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 100031
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST SAT FEB 9 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 972 MB LOW 320 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD WILL MOVE TO NEAR MIDDLETON
ISLAND AND WEAKEN TO 984 MB SUN AFTERNOON THEN WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. A 975 MB LOW 530 NM SOUTH OF
CHIGNIK SUN AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN TO 983 MB AS IT MERGES WITH LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-101500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST SAT FEB 9 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-101500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST SAT FEB 9 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-101500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST SAT FEB 9 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-101500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST SAT FEB 9 2008

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT ...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-101500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST SAT FEB 9 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-101500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST SAT FEB 9 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 
45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 27 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-101500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST SAT FEB 9 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
18 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-101500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST SAT FEB 9 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.  
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS  IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-101500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST SAT FEB 9 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SAT FEB 9 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS LOOK GOOD IN THE SHORT TERM OUT WEST THIS EVENING BUT ARE LESS
RELIABLE IN THE EAST.  COMPARISON WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT NONE OF THE 00Z RUNS ARE INITIALIZING WELL ON THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR.  NAM AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY FORMING BUT GFS HAS NOT PICKED
UP ON THIS FEATURE AT ALL. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON
WHICH LOW CENTER WILL DEVELOP AND WHERE IT WILL GO...THOUGH WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING TO THE WEST THIS WILL PROBABLY CAUSE A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK.  LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
CONTINUITY REASONS. IN THE LONG TERM...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE PRETTY
VARIABLE.  GFS WANTS TO SPLIT THE LOW OUT WEST INTO SEVERAL CENTERS
AND MOVE THE LOW IN THE EAST ON A DIFFERENT TRACK...THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM THE 12Z SOLUTION WHICH WAS SHOWING BETTER CONTINUITY.  SO IN THE
LONGTERM THE 12Z SOLUTION WAS CHOSEN.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AS FORECAST YESTERDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED FROM THE WESTERN
YUKON OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES IN
THE GULF WITH THE MAIN JET CURRENTLY OVER THE PANHANDLE.  AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH TODAY THE MAIN POLAR JET WILL ALSO
MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE SYSTEMS TO MOVE ONSHORE NEAR CORDOVA AND BRING MORE PRECIP TO
THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION.  IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING A
SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED A SECONDARY
LOW TO ITS EAST...THIS FEATURE WAS NOT WELL HANDLED BY MODELS SO THE
FORECAST IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.  HOWEVER THE SECONDARY
LOW HAS THE BENEFIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT SO IT WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE THE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WHILE THE PRIMARY LOW
SLOWLY FILLS BEHIND IT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN CHANNELED AREAS
CAUSING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH BROAD PASS AND
THOMPSON PASS. BY TOMORROW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW AND THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW.  THIS WILL
ALSO BRING SNOW TO THE GULF COAST AND A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO THE INLAND
ZONES. AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL AT THIS
POINT.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ALSO CONTINUE OUT
WEST AS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LOW.  THE FIRST
CHANCE FOR SNOW HAPPENS MONDAY NIGHT WHEN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEGINS
TO MOVE INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND ON INTO THE DELTA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. IN THE ALEUTIANS THE WEAK LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT ITS NEARLY
STATIONARY LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SHOWERY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH RIGHT NOW WITH THE MODEL RUNS SO VARIABLE.
HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK TO IT APPEARS
THAT A SNOWY FORECAST FOR THE MAINLAND IS MORE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES
ALSO APPEAR TO CONTINUE WITH THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 125 129 140 185 412 414
         GALES 411 412 413
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF FEB 08