Storm Warning 25, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 190043
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-191500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 957 MB LOW NEAR ADAK WILL MOVE TO 370 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL
SAT AFTERNOON THEN MOVE INTO THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST MONDAY. A 1002 MB
LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC FRI NIGHT WILL DEEPEN TO 973 MB 320 NM
SOUTH OF ATKA MON AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ150-191500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-191500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.   

$$

PKZ160-191500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. AREAS OF
FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-191500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-191500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND AREAS OF FOG. SNOW AND
RAIN.  
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG.
SNOW AND RAIN.  
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SNOW.  
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT.  
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT.  
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT.   

$$

PKZ170-191500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 65
KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-191500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-191500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-191500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-191500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-191500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-191500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING ARE A LOT CLOSE TO EACH OTHER BUT VERY
DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY.  YESTERDAYS GFS RUN DID NOT VERIFY WELL
WITH THE LOW TRACK GOING MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN ADVERTISED.  THAT
BEING SAID CONFIDENCE IN MODEL PERFORMANCE IS STILL HIGHER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY AND THE GFS WAS CHOSEN FOR THE FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH HAS DEEPENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS A 170 KT JET MAX MOVES INTO THE BASE.
MEANWHILE TWO MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
PATTERN...ONE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ONE IN THE CENTRAL NORTH
PACIFIC.  AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE BERING GAINS THE JET SUPPORT IT
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO THE BERING.  THIS SYSTEM IS
BRINGING PLENTY OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF IT WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND.  CONSEQUENTLY THIS WILL FORM
A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOW AND WINDS WILL BE
STRONG THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...THE PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
GULF OF ALASKA HAS MOSTLY FIZZLED OUT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS IN.  THIS WILL BRING FOG
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...BUT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE LOW WINDS WILL PICK UP ON SATURDAY AND FOG WILL NO
LONGER BE A CONCERN.  THESE WINDS WILL BE PRETTY STRONG...UP TO 60
MPH THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM.  SUNDAY THE KENAI
PENINSULA/ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATSU VALLEY STAND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH DOWNSLOPING MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE
ANCHORAGE REGION FROM GETTING MUCH.  THE WARM AIR PUSH FROM THE SOUTH
WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN TO KODIAK AND MIXED PRECIP TO THE KENAI
PENINSULA AT LEAST.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC ALL ZONES CAN EXPECT
TO SEE STRONG WINDS GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHWARD.  THIS MEANS STORM
WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
TONIGHT ALONG THE Y/K DELTA AHEAD OF THE LOW.  BY TOMORROW MORNING
CONDITIONS WILL WARM ENOUGH THAT BLOWING SNOW WILL NO LONGER REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND THE PRECIP WILL SWITCH TO A MIX OR POSSIBLY EVEN RAIN
IN SOME AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ALASKA RANGE.  AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THE WINDS WILL DECREASE
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS. NO HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
ALEUTIANS DUE TO THE NORTHERLY POSITION OF THE LOW AND THE LACK OF
REALLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AFTER THIS MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE CHUKCHI
SEA FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHERLY FOR THE MAINLAND FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS.  THE NEXT LOW THAT MOVES UP IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SKIRT
THE WEST COAST BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS STRONG. THERE IS
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM SO THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MOST OF THE ZONES ON THE MAINLAND AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD.  BY WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE
BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...BRINGING IN AIR FROM
EASTERN RUSSIA AND A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 155
MARINE...GALE 130 132 150 155 160 165 171 176 179 180
         STORM 170 172 175 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF JAN 08