Storm Warning 227, NWS Anchorage, AK

896 
FZAK52 PAFC 311228
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-010300-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA
THROUGH THU NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 963 MB LOW 700
NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA THU NIGHT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FROM THE SOUTH.

$$

PKZ150-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 
9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-010300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-010300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-010300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-010300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT E 20 KT E OF ATKA. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT E 25 KT E OF ATKA. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT PACIFIC SIDE...12 FT BERING SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN PACIFIC SIDE.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 25
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.   

$$

PKZ185-010300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-010300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 30 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITTING IN THE GULF WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SITUATED OVER THE BERING AND ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. THIS OMEGA BLOCK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
LOW IN THE GULF ROTATES EAST TOMORROW AS A NEW LOW DROPS INTO THE
INTERIOR AND THEN DIVES SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN ALASKA THURSDAY AND
INTO THE GULF FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
KAMCHATKA LOW FRIDAY AND PUSH THE HIGH CENTER IN THE BERING SEA TO
EASTERN SIBERIA SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER WAVE ROTATES THROUGH
THE INTERIOR SOUTHWESTWARD AND CREATES A TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN
BERING. FURTHER OUT...THE HIGH RETROGRADES INTO THE SEA OF OKHOTSK BY
MONDAY WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND AND THE KAMCHATKA
LOW ROTATING TO SOUTH OF SHEMYA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY AT UPPER LEVELS. THIS IS WHEN
SOME DETAILS IN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE INTERIOR FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERALL...A TROUGH TO BE
OVER THE MAINLAND WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO SIBERIA. AT THE
SURFACE THERE IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE. THEREFORE...THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE THE PREFERRED MODELS IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING SEA...
A LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA COMBINED WITH THE HIGH IN THE BERING
TO CREATE A NICE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.
THEREFORE...WE EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS. THE LOW GETS
CLOSER TOMORROW TO THE CHAIN. THIS WILL INCREASE THE WINDS EVEN MORE
OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND BRING SOME PRECIPITATION AS WELL. THE
ACCOMPANYING FRONT WILL WORK NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE
BERING FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME. THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES INTO THE BERING STRAIT AND THEN TO THE CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY.

SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA...
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH TOMORROW. SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW KEEPING TEMPERATURE RANGES LOWER.
THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP WIND
CHILLS ADVISORY LEVELS AT BAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH SOME FLURRIES AND CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.
COLD AND DRY TO REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTER THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
INLAND HAS CREATED AREAS OF STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
INCREASING THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE STRONGEST NORTHERLY
FLOW TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF ANCHORAGE...SO THE GAP WINDS IN THE
CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS NOT AS STRONG AS THEY COULD BE.
THEREFORE...NO WIND WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP OUT OF THE NORTH THURSDAY
AND TURN THE FLOW WESTERLY ALONG THE KENAI AND CHUGACH GAPS. THIS
WILL INCREASE NORTH TO WEST FLOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA...BUT NORTH
SOUTH ORIENTED GAPS IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EAST TO BECOME LOWER.
THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY TO PICK UP WINDS ALONG THE BARREN
ISLAND AND OVER KODIAK ISLAND AS WELL. EVEN THOUGH THE FLOW IS
WESTERLY...THE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO REMAIN
ENOUGH FOR MODERATE NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED GAPS. THE STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW TO REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO
THE GULF. POSSIBLE WARNING LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ALONG
KODIAK ISLAND WITH A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AS WELL. SOME SHOWERS TO
BE IN THE GULF AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BACKS OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
IN GENERAL...A COLD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN TO REMAIN OVER THE INLAND.
LOW PRESSURE TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE CHAIN SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN THE BERING AND INTERIOR. THIS
WILL MEAN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE CHAIN. SOME
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE CHAIN WITH MAINLY SNOW AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ONE LOW TO MOVE THROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF SUNDAY. ONCE THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF SUNDAY...SOME STRONGER
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL RING THE GULF BUT NONE TO MAKE IT
INLAND. THE MAIN LOW REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SHOOT TO THE PANHANDLE
BY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN THE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AROUND COASTAL LOCATIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY ZONES 131 AND 145
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 124 129 130 138 140 141
                              150 155 160 165
         GALE 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN DEC 08