Gale Warning 879, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 311244
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010300-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A DEVELOPING 1004 MB LOW 125 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THU NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TO 994 MB.
$$

PKZ120-010300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-010300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-010300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 5
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-010300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-010300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
$$

PKZ132-010300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-010300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-010300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-010300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 30 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITTING IN THE GULF WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SITUATED OVER THE BERING AND ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. THIS OMEGA BLOCK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
LOW IN THE GULF ROTATES EAST TOMORROW AS A NEW LOW DROPS INTO THE
INTERIOR AND THEN DIVES SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN ALASKA THURSDAY AND
INTO THE GULF FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
KAMCHATKA LOW FRIDAY AND PUSH THE HIGH CENTER IN THE BERING SEA TO
EASTERN SIBERIA SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER WAVE ROTATES THROUGH
THE INTERIOR SOUTHWESTWARD AND CREATES A TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN
BERING. FURTHER OUT...THE HIGH RETROGRADES INTO THE SEA OF OKHOTSK BY
MONDAY WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND AND THE KAMCHATKA
LOW ROTATING TO SOUTH OF SHEMYA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY AT UPPER LEVELS. THIS IS WHEN
SOME DETAILS IN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE INTERIOR FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERALL...A TROUGH TO BE
OVER THE MAINLAND WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO SIBERIA. AT THE
SURFACE THERE IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE. THEREFORE...THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE THE PREFERRED MODELS IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING SEA...
A LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA COMBINED WITH THE HIGH IN THE BERING
TO CREATE A NICE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.
THEREFORE...WE EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS. THE LOW GETS
CLOSER TOMORROW TO THE CHAIN. THIS WILL INCREASE THE WINDS EVEN MORE
OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND BRING SOME PRECIPITATION AS WELL. THE
ACCOMPANYING FRONT WILL WORK NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE
BERING FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME. THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES INTO THE BERING STRAIT AND THEN TO THE CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY.

SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA...
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH TOMORROW. SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW KEEPING TEMPERATURE RANGES LOWER.
THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP WIND
CHILLS ADVISORY LEVELS AT BAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH SOME FLURRIES AND CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.
COLD AND DRY TO REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTER THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
INLAND HAS CREATED AREAS OF STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
INCREASING THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE STRONGEST NORTHERLY
FLOW TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF ANCHORAGE...SO THE GAP WINDS IN THE
CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS NOT AS STRONG AS THEY COULD BE.
THEREFORE...NO WIND WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP OUT OF THE NORTH THURSDAY
AND TURN THE FLOW WESTERLY ALONG THE KENAI AND CHUGACH GAPS. THIS
WILL INCREASE NORTH TO WEST FLOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA...BUT NORTH
SOUTH ORIENTED GAPS IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EAST TO BECOME LOWER.
THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY TO PICK UP WINDS ALONG THE BARREN
ISLAND AND OVER KODIAK ISLAND AS WELL. EVEN THOUGH THE FLOW IS
WESTERLY...THE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO REMAIN
ENOUGH FOR MODERATE NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED GAPS. THE STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW TO REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO
THE GULF. POSSIBLE WARNING LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ALONG
KODIAK ISLAND WITH A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AS WELL. SOME SHOWERS TO
BE IN THE GULF AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BACKS OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
IN GENERAL...A COLD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN TO REMAIN OVER THE INLAND.
LOW PRESSURE TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE CHAIN SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN THE BERING AND INTERIOR. THIS
WILL MEAN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE CHAIN. SOME
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE CHAIN WITH MAINLY SNOW AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ONE LOW TO MOVE THROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF SUNDAY. ONCE THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF SUNDAY...SOME STRONGER
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL RING THE GULF BUT NONE TO MAKE IT
INLAND. THE MAIN LOW REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SHOOT TO THE PANHANDLE
BY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN THE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AROUND COASTAL LOCATIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY ZONES 131 AND 145
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 124 129 130 138 140 141
                              150 155 160 165
         GALE 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN DEC 08