Storm Warning 221, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 231252
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-240300-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A DEVELOPING 1009 MB LOW 450 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE NEAR
SAINT PAUL ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DISSIPATE. A 1002 MB LOW WILL
MOVE TO 50 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-240300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 18
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 10
FT.
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-240300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 20
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 


$$

PKZ160-240300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT...SUBSIDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-240300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-240300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-240300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-240300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-240300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-240300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-240300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E WIND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-240300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-240300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS THIS MORNING ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE
START TO SEE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS IN THE BERING SEA FOLLOWED BY MORE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO THIS LOW AND HOW IT MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY
AND THEN INTERACTS WITH THE LOW MOVING UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE GFS ANS NAM ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF
UNALASKA WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF BOTH DIFFER FROM EACH OTHER AND
THE NAM AND GFS. THIS TENDS TO RESULT IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND AK PENINSULA AT THIS TIME AND
THEREFORE WE WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE CONTINUES
TO GET PUSHED EAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
MOVES OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND DIGS A TROUGH SOUTHEAST TO AN
UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TUE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS RUNNING ALONG THE ALEUTIANS THEN DIVES
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA.

A WEAK LOW FORMING NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS WILL DRIFT INTO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND A DISSIPATE TO A TROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY
MOVING ACROSS BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT MOVES TO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND TUE
MORNING AND DIVES SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE ZONAL FLOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA WILL PERSIST
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
GET ENTRAINED IN THE ZONAL FLOW AND RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT THEN INTO BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...
THE FOG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA HAS LIFTED TO A STRATUS LAYER AND
IS LESS OF A PROBLEM THAN IT WAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE COOK INLET AND SOUTH
CENTRAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN INLET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN MOST AREAS. A SECOND STRONGER
WAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MORE SNOW THAN THE FIRST SHORT WAVE.

SOUTHWEST...
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW HAS BEEN AN ISSUE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
TODAY. MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

ALEUTIANS/BERING...
WITH A ZONAL FLOW PERSISTING OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WE ARE STICKING WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE AND EXPECT THE LOW
IN THE NORTHERN GULF DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BEING REPLACED BY A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.  OUT WEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA THURSDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 130 132 185 351 352.
         GALES 120 138 140 141 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176
               179 180 411 412 413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...DONE.

SAM DEC 08