Storm Warning 193, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 231847 AAB
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
945 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

UPDATED TO ZONE 413

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-240300-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A DEVELOPING 1009 MB LOW NEAR 45N 167E WILL MOVE TO 56N 169W
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DISSIPATE. A 1002 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 
52N 167W WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ411-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
530 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22
FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
945 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. WINDS BECOMING SW 25 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 240000
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-241500-
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 51N 174E TUE NIGHT WILL MOVE NEAR 56N 170W
WED NIGHT AND DISSIPATE. A 1004 MB LOW AT 47N 175W WED WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 992 MB THU MORNING NEAR 54N 160W AND THEN TO 986 MB
NEAR 55N 153W THU AFTERNOON. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
BERING THU.

$$

PKZ411-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 0 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS THIS MORNING ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE BY LATE WEDNESDAY REGARDING THE MOVEMENT OF
A LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA.  THE GFS AND NAM ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW SOUTH OF
UNALASKA WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.  THE WEST AND EAST FORECASTS THIS MORNING
WILL BE BASED ON THE GFS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND IN
THE EXTENDED.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AS A TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL FORM ALONG THE PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE UPPER LEVEL JET
RUNNING JUST NORTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TO NEAR KODIAK WILL BEGIN TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENTUALLY
IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN INTO A
TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.  ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM
NEAR BRISTOL BAY AND MOVE RAPIDLY TO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND TUESDAY
BEFORE DIVING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.  FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  BY
WEDNESDAY A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH.  THIS LOW
WILL IMPACT BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
SNOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH MOVE THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST INTO TONIGHT.  COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW TO AREAS ALONG THE
KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL LATE TONIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR
WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHWEST...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLEARING OUT RAPIDLY THIS MORNING IN BRISTOL BAY
AND THE AK PENINSULA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST.  WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO TONIGHT WITH BLOWING
SNOW A CONCERN.  WINDS WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

ALEUTIANS/BERING...
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW OR SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TODAY.  THE NEXT LOW
CROSSING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS
AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
EXPECT COLD CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE MAINLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.  OUT
WEST EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...
MARINE...GALE 120 121 125 129 138 140 141 150 155 160 165 170 171 172.
              175 176 179 180 185.
         STORM 130 132.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 125 129 130 132 138 140 141.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NRH/KB DEC 08