Storm Warning 217, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 190019
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-191500-
400 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 990 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 200 NM
SOUTEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR FRI AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 996 MB. THE LOW
WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF SAT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI AFTERNOON THEN TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS SAT AFTERNOON AS A 994 MB LOW MOVES TO 100 NM NORTH OF
SHEMYA.
$$

PKZ150-191500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-191500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-191500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-191500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-191500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-191500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-191500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-191500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-191500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-191500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-191500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-191500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE IS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND WILL PERSIST FOR
AT LEAST ANOTHER WEEK. THIS MEANS FAIRLY TAME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
A VERTICALLY STACKED CUTOFF LOW IS CENTERED ATKA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND IS UNDERCUTTING THE OVERALL MEAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. THIS LOW HAS BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO ADAK WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA NORTH TOWARD DEADHORSE...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS. THE MAJOR FEATURES ARE
PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL EVEN INTO THE EXTENDED. WHERE
DIFFERENCES ARISE...PREFER THE ECMWF DUE TO ITS BETTER RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY LATELY. PROBABLY THE TRICKIEST FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT AND DISSIPATION OF WEAK
TRIPLE POINT LOWS WHICH WILL FORM ALONG A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN BERING TO THE AKPEN TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GULF. THIS
FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST AND REMAIN POSITIONED OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTER.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
A NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTED FRONT WRAPPED SEVERAL TIMES INTO THE
ATKA LOW IS POSITIONED FROM THE EASTERN BERING TO SOUTH OF THE AKPEN
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...BECOMING MORE
EAST/WEST ORIENTED ACROSS THE GULF ON FRIDAY AND SHEARING APART AND
DISSIPATING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THE GULF INCLUDING KODIAK...AND
HAVE MORE TROUBLE REACHING THE MAINLAND. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE IT TO THE EASTERN KENAI FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN
RETREAT AS DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW TAKES OVER. HOWEVER...ELSEWHERE ON
THE MAINLAND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT OR
NONEXISTENT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND IS JUST TOO STRONG AND
WILL LIMIT THE NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY AS RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX...WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW
COMPLEX MOVING EAST THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOME DRYING. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND INTO THE WEEKEND
THOUGH IT WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AFTER TODAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR ATKA THIS MORNING IS DRIFTING
EAST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO
SOUTH OF SAND POINT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW REACHED ITS PEAK WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME STORM FORCE WINDS ON ITS WEST SIDE AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR ADAK. STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT. A COUPLE OF WEAK TRIPLE POINT LOWS WILL FORM
NORTH AND EAST OF THE MAIN LOW INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS TODAY GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS SATURDAY AS A FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS FRIDAY AND CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MEAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL JET INVOLVEMENT SHOULD BRING SOME FASTER AND
WARMER WESTERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 187.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONE 172.
         GALE WARNING ZONES 130 132 140 175 176 351 352 411 412 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY DEC 08