Small Craft Advisory 1007, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 180044 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED ZONE 125
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

CORRECTED ZONE 125 TYPO

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181500-
400 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH THU NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF TO THE CENTRAL GULF THU AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-181500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-181500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FOOT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-181500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 30 KT OUT OF NORTHEASTERN BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 


$$

PKZ129-181500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ130-181500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-181500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-181500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-181500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HIGHEST SEAS SOUTH OF
KALGIN ISLAND.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-181500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 181302
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190300-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH THU NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI.
$$

PKZ120-190300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-190300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-190300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT OUT OF BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-190300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-190300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NORTHWEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
ELSEWHERE...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-190300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-190300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-190300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SOUTH OF CLAM GULCH...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. ELSEWHERE...
NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SOUTH OF CLAM GULCH...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
ELSEWHERE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SOUTH OF CLAM GULCH...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. ELSEWHERE...
NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-190300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 18 2008

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
THROUGH 60 HOURS. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THAT THE SOLUTION CONTINUES
TO CHANGE WITH THE RUNS SO THE MODEL CONSISTENCY IS NOT WHAT ONE
WOULD HOPE FOR. THE OVERALL TREND HAD BEEN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IN
THE BERING SEA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD IT
STRONGLY POSITIONED IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING SEA AT THAT
TIME. THE SUCCESSIVE RUNS ON THE GFS HAVE BEEN FORCING IT FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH. OF THE MAJOR MODELS THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A WARM RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE TO THE ARCTIC COAST. THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO HOLD FAST BUT WILL
BE PUSHED EASTWARD BY FRIDAY. IN THE WEST THERE IS A CUT OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AGAIN BEHIND THIS LOW BUT
THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE JET STREAM
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING IN COLDER AIR TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND EVENTUALLY THE ALASKA PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE AND HELP PUSH THIS LOW SOUTH
OF THE AREA RELEGATING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT TO THE
COASTAL AREAS AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FORM OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS USUALLY CONCERN ABOUT FREEZING RAIN IN THE DILLINGHAM AREA WITH
THIS SORT OF PATTERN BUT THE POTENTIAL LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME. THE
WINDS IN DILLINGHAM REMAINED NORTH ALL NIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURE
REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING SO THERE IS EVIDENTLY NOT A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN. FREEZING RAIN
IS A POSSIBILITY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS
THERE IS COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE.
THE WARM AIR IS FIRMLY OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S STRETCHING FROM BRISTOL BAY TO
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND NORTH PAST NUNIVAK ISLAND.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD AND BRING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE COLD ADVECTION
AND STRONG WINDS ON ITS WEST SIDE.

FOG IN THE NORTHERN COOK INLET REGION SHOULD DIMINISH AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MILD AND PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW APPEARS TO
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 187.
MARINE...GALE 130 170 171 175 176.
         STORM 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 08