Storm Warning 203, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 040322 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

UPDATED ZONE 129

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-041500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
GULF WED NIGHT AND THEN RAPIDLY DISSIPATE EARLY THU MORNING. A 
995 MB LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT 100 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD WED 
NIGHT AND DISSIPATE 100 NM EAST OF SEWARD THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-041500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND... E
WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E
WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-041500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-041500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-041500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.THU...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-041500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-041500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-041500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-041500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-041500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 041251
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 994 MB LOW 100 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL WEAKEN TO 1000 MB
NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THU AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING THU
EVENING. A WEAK WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA FRI NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-050300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 15 KT BY NOON. NEAR THE COAST
E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-050300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-050300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-050300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-050300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-050300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-050300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-050300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-050300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
110 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
IS NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A STRONG UPPER
JET (ESTIMATED JET MAX OF 160KT) IS RIDING NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THIS CYCLONE/WESTERN SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...PUMPING LOTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. BRISTOL BAY TO KODIAK ISLAND HAVE WARMED UP
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PRECIPITATION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
HOWEVER...FURTHER NORTH THERE IS STILL ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE. SO THE WARM AIR IS RIDING OVER TOP OF THIS COLD AIR AND
PRODUCING SOME FAIRLY STEEP INVERSIONS (AS SEEN IN 12Z SOUNDINGS
FROM BETHEL...MCGRATH...AND ANCHORAGE. THE EXTENT OF THE WARM AIR
ALOFT IS INDICATED IN BETHELS OBSERVATIONS WHERE FREEZING RAIN
BEGAN MIXING IN WITH A SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES.

AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A 960MB LOW UNDERNEATH THE UPPER CENTER
WITH OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. A LOW HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH OF COLD BAY AND
IS ROTATING NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND THE UPPER CIRCULATION. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER
THE GULF WATERS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO BRISTOL BAY AND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ALL INITIALIZED WELL AND ALL SHOW THE
SAME GENERAL SOLUTION...BUT THERE ARE SOME KEY DIFFERENCES IN LOW
TRACKS. THE TREND WITH THE MAIN LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS IS TO
MAINTAIN A TRACK SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN UKMET/ECMWF/NAM SO WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.
THE SECONDARY LOW THAT HAS FORMED SOUTH OF COLD BAY IS A LITTLE
MORE PROBLEMATIC. ALL MODELS ROTATE THIS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING AND THEN SOUTHWARD AS THE MAIN LOW TRACKS EAST.
HOWEVER THERE ARE TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW...WILL
TREND TOWARD THE GFS. FOR THE GULF AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND PREFER
THE NAM MODEL FOR THE DETAILS. IT IS THE ONLY MODEL TO DEVELOP A
CLOSED SURFACE LOW AS THE FRONT REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF. WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THIS SEEMS LIKE A SAFE BET. BASED ON
OBSERVATION OF FREEZING RAIN IN BETHEL...MODELS ARE A BIT WEAK AND
A BIT SLOW WITH WARM ADVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD WARMING
THINGS UP FASTER AND BRINING WARM AIR FARTHER NORTH. BEYOND DAY 3
THERE IS HUGE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO VERY POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY SO
WILL STICK CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECASTS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING A LITTLE SNOW ON MOST PLACES.
THE UPPER JET WILL CURVE EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL
TONIGHT...PUSHING THE RIDGE EASTWARD...AND TRANSPORTING A LOT OF
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THUS EXPECT TRENDS SIMILAR
TO WHAT IS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING. IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN WHILE INLAND AREAS THAT
ARE MORE ENTRENCHED IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SEE A BIT OF FREEZING
RAIN. STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS.
BUT THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE STRONG FLOW. THE SUSITNA VALLEY SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW AND THE USUAL UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE ALASKA RANGE
WILL SEE HEAVIER AMOUNTS...SO HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SNOW FOR ZONE 145. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW TO
ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH ACROSS THE COPPER
BASIN...SO WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR
THERE ON THURSDAY. DO THINK FREEZING RAIN WILL BE A MAJOR PROBLEM
ANYWHERE BECAUSE AIR IS SO WARM THAT TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NEAR
THE COAST SHOULD QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING. WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON INLAND LOCATIONS WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH SNOW. THERE IS ANOTHER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...SO PLAIN OLD RAIN WILL LIKELY
EXTEND FARTHER INLAND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WARM AIR AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY
CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO
SPREAD NORTHWARD...SO WILL CONTINUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. MAY NEED TO EXTEND ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM
WHICH MAY HOLD OUT A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE WARMING TO FREEZING.
UPPER WAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...MAINTAINING AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE
ALEUTIAN LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO COOL
AND THE REMAINING SHOWERS OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARD
SNOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THIS TIM PERIOD WITH
NEXT GULF LOW...IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY GOOD CHANCE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A VERY LARGE AREA OF SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL PERSIST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
AND WESTERN TO CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL ROTATES TO NEAR THE PRIBILOFS
THURSDAY. THEN AS IT ROTATES SOUTHWARD FRIDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN EVEN FURTHER JUST WEST OF THIS LOW...RESULTING IN A
SMALL AREA OF STORM FORCE WINDS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND EASTERN BERING WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SMALL CRAFT OR LESS WINDS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF A MAJOR LOW TOWARD THE GULF
OF ALASKA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTION OF A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHERN BERING SEA OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA AND ARCTIC AIR DIVING SOUTHWARD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...120.
         GALE WARNING...125 129 130 140 175 176 179 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 08