Storm Warning 137, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 101808 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1000 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

UPDATED ZONES 120 125 AND 129

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-110200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF MOVES ONSHORE THE NORTH GULF 
COAST THIS MORNING. A 985 MB LOW 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT FRI
NIGHT MOVES TO NEAR SEWARD AT 994 MB SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-110200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
1000 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 55 KT GUSTS TO 65 KT ALONG THE COAST. S WIND 40 KT
WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.  SEAS 23 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT IN THE EVENING NORTH AND EAST OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND.  OTHERWISE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-110200-
RESURRECTION BAY
700 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT BY MID MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-110200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
1000 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT GUSTS TO 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 8
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT BY MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-110200-
PASSAGE CANAL
700 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-110200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING SE 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-110200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-110200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-110200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
700 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF
TURNAGAIN ARM...GUSTS TO 65 KT DIMINISHING TO GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM...GUSTS TO 25 KT. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-110200-
KACHEMAK BAY
700 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 6
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 102312
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 984 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK WILL WEAKEN TO 990 MB 75 NM
SOUTH OF KODIAK SAT AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN FURTHER TO 999 MB
100 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK SUN AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-111400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-111400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-111400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 12 FT DIMINISHING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-111400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-111400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-111400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-111400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-111400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-111400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT LOW IN THE BERING SEA HAS
WEAKENED TO 975 MB AND HAS CROSSED OUT OF THE BERING SEA BACK INTO
THE PACIFIC. BEHIND THIS PARENT LOW STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURING
THROUGHOUT THE BERING SEA. A VERY STRONG WEATHER FRONT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING THE NORTH GULF COAST AND INLAND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
WARNING LEVEL WINDS THROUGH FUNNELED AREAS AND WIDESPREAD STORM FORCE
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE COLD AIR TOOK LONGER THAN
EXPECTED TO BE SCOURED OUT OF THE VALLEYS...BUT SNOW HAS NOW CHANGED
TO RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA...VALDEZ...AND THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MAJOR MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PAST KODIAK ISLAND...BUT ALL MODELS BRING
THE LOW TO NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUNDAY EVENING. BEGINNING EARLY
NEXT WEEK MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN...BUT THE COMMON DENOMINATOR
REMAINS THAT THE BERING SEA AND MAINLAND ALASKA SHOULD REMAIN IN A
RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND
BEGIN TO DECREASE BY MIDDAY. WARNING LEVEL WINDS HAVE VERIFIED IN
ZONES 125 AND 101. ZONE 111 HAS ALSO SEEN WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
OVERNIGHT. AS LOWER PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE
STATE WINDS IN ANCHORAGE ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN PARTS OF TOWN. HEAVY
RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE COAST AND THE SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. AS DOWNSLOPING ENDS AROUND
MIDDAY...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE COOK INLET
AND THE MATSU VALLEY. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THROUGH FUNNELED
AREAS AND A BARRIER JET WILL FORM AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SECONDARY FRONT IMPACTS THE NORTH GULF COAST. THIS EVENT
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT LOW...AND AS THIS LOW
MOVES INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND A COLD ADVECTION EVENT LOOKS POSSLBE
SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...FREEZING RAIN OCCURED FOR SEVERAL HOURS
OVERNIGHT NEAR BETHEL. AS EXPECTED...THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WAS VERY
CLOSE TO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE FOR THIS EVENT. AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BY MID MORNING
AS COLD NORTHERLY FLOW SPREADS INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FROM THE
BERING SEA. THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL SEE SNOW CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY BEFORE BECOME SHOWERY IN THE AFTERNOON. STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURING OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND WILL SLOWLY DECLINE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A WEAK RIDGE WILL CLEAR CONDITIONS IN THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG FRONT MOVES INTO
THE BERING SEA ON SUNDAY. ALL MODELS AGREE ON SOME FLAVOR OF TRIPLE
POINT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WITH THIS FRONT...BUT
EXACT DETAILS ARE STILL UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. NEVERTHELESS...ALL
MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING LOW PRESSURE OF SOME STRENGTH INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125
MARINE...STORM WARNING 413
         GALE WARNING 120 125 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 180 185
         179 351 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AMD OCT 08