Gale Warning 579, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 102247
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-111400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 985 MB LOW NEAR 52N 162W WILL
WEAKEN TO 990 MB NEAR 57N 153W SAT AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM THE WESTERN BERING THIS EVENING TO THE EASTERN BERING SUN. A
STRONG FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN
SUN.

$$

PKZ411-111400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-111400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-111400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-111400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 111155
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 11 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-120200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 989 MB LOW NEAR 57N 156W WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA BY SAT EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL BERING THIS MORNING TO THE EASTERN BERING SUN. A STRONG FRONT
WILL WORK INTO THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN SUN.

$$

PKZ411-120200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 11 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-120200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 11 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO W 15 KT THIS MORNING. 
SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-120200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 11 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-120200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 11 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 120000
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 11 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-121400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 990 MB LOW NEAR 58N 151W WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA BY SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL BERING TO THE EASTERN BERING ON SUN AND DISSIPATE. A STRONG
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN SUN
MORNING REACHING THE SW ALASKA COAST MON AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-121400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 11 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT...BUILDING TO 11 TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...BECOMING SW 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT...BUILDING TO 15 TO 19 FT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 23 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 TO 26 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 TO 24 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-121400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 11 2008

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 9
FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.SEAS 7 TO 11 FT...BUILDING TO 12 TO
16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 25 TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-121400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 11 2008

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 TO 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 23 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 TO 23 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-121400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 11 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 2O TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
120 PM AKDT THU OCT 9 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG 963 MB LOW WITH STORM FORCE WINDS IS
POSITIONED IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SOUTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL. A WARM
FRONT STRETCHES OUT EAST AND AHEAD OF THE LOW FROM THE KILBUCK
MOUNTAINS TO ILIAMNA TO COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL. SOME SNOW IS OCCURRING
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS A SECONDARY STRENGTHENING FRONT IN THE
WESTERN GULF WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING AROUND KAMISHAK BAY
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE STRONGEST WINDS TO SOUTHCENTRAL.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SOME
DISAGREEMENTS ARISE IN THE LONG TERM...BUT ALL MODELS AGREE ON
CONTINUING THE VERY ACTIVE PATTERN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
AN INITIAL WARM FRONT WELL AHEAD OF THE BERING LOW IS BRINGING MORE
OVERRUNNING SNOW THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL EARLY THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY
QUICKLY ALOFT WITH MOST PLACES CHANGING TO RAIN. THE BIGGER CONCERN
IS THE NEXT FRONT THAT THE MASSIVE BERING LOW WILL THROW AT US
TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS INTENSIFYING THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES NORTH
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF. GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AND WINDS WILL ONLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
NORTH GULF COAST. A TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN KAMISHAK
BAY AND MOVE UP COOK INLET...POSSIBLY FURTHER ENHANCING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TURNAGAIN
ARM...PORTAGE VALLEY...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ANCHORAGE FOR
TONIGHT. RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST...AND A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ZONES
AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE FRONT MOVES INLAND FRIDAY MORNING
WITH WINDS SUBSIDING AND PRECIP TAPERING OFF OVER SOME AREAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LOW OUT IN THE BERING WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
TO NEAR KODIAK SATURDAY...KEEPING SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THE WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL UNTIL SUNDAY...WHEN COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
STRONG FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. SNOW HAS MOSTLY
CHANGED TO RAIN OVER BRISTOL BAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT WITH A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING AND CHANGES THINGS OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIX. THINGS ARE
TRICKER FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...AS THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PUSH MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND WEST MEANING THAT THEY MAY NOT
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND WILL SEE SOME DECENT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...BUT
BELIEVE THE SNOW WILL BE TOO WET AND TEMPS TOO WARM FOR SNOW TO BLOW
AROUND ENOUGH TO CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY THOUGH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. AS THE BERING LOW MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
ALL OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
SATURDAY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE GULF LOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A MONSTER 963 MB LOW OUT IN THE ALEUTIANS NEAR BUOY 46073 SOUTHWEST
OF THE PRIBILOFS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC AND THEN
EAST TOWARD KODIAK...WEAKENING ALL ALONG. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
THE LOW AS WELL AS MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON ITS
WEST SIDE. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF...LOOK FOR STRONG
COLD ADVECTION AND SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE ACTIVE PATTERN ALIVE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS DISAGREE ON DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING IT LOOKS LIKE AN
ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120 125 172 175 185.
         GALE WARNING 125 129 130 132 155 160 165 170 171 176 179
         180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY OCT 08