Storm Warning 130, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 291129
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 29 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-300200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 989 MB LOW NEAR 59N 167W WILL WEAKEN TO 1002 MB AND CROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA NEAR CHIGNIK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A
WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 980 MB LOW NEAR 57N 165E WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.  THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
$$

PKZ411-300200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 29 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-300200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 29 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-300200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 29 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-300200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 29 2008

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ARE POSITIONED
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA /NE PACIFIC AND OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK WITH
A STRONG RIDGE IN BETWEEN...CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. A
165 KT UPPER JET EXTENDS FROM THE NW PACIFIC UP AND OVER TOP OF THE
RIDGE (INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA) AND THEN DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NE PACIFIC BEFORE RETURNING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
THERE ARE TWO DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND HEADED NNE
TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST...RESULTING IN GUSTY GAP WINDS. THE DIFFERENCE
IN AIRMASS TEMPERATURE BETWEEN INLAND AND AIR OVER THE GULF IS ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG WINDS. THE SECOND MAJOR LOW IS TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BERING (OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE) WHILE AN OCCLUDED FRONT
PUSHES ONSHORE OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE COMBINATION OF A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LITTLE PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT MEANS
THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY SLOW. SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW HAS IS OCCURRING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND WINDS ARE GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CAPE NEWENHAM OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST
INDICATE VISIBILITY HAS REMAINED 1 MILE OR MORE. SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT ANY POSSIBILITY OF SUSTAINED BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
IS ALSO GOOD...SO WILL STICK CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN TONIGHT
AS THE EASTERN GULF LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. THE OCCLUDED FRONT OUT WEST WILL APPROACH KODIAK ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND FALL APART AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA
WEDNESDAY. THE BERING LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING FLOW OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION TO THESE FACTORS
THERE IS ALSO A DEEP LAYER OF COLD DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL. THEREFORE...EVERYTHING POINTS TOWARD A DRY FORECAST
FOR INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL WITH JUST A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS. EXPECT
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TO COASTAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN DRY OUT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL FALL
APART FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD BRISTOL BAY. IT WONT MAKE MUCH MORE
PROGRESSION INLAND...SO MOST OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS WELL AS
FAR INLAND BRISTOL BAY WILL REMAIN DRY. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH
WARM AIR TO CHANGE SNOW TO RAIN AND END THE ONGOING BLOWING SNOW.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE BEHIND THE BERING LOW WILL MAINTAIN A
THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE
DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY.

ALEUTIANS...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE LOW CENTER...THEN
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE BERING
LOW WEAKENS AND TRACKS ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THERE IS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF THERMAL ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...SO
WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN STEP WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. A RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE BERING OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF
RUSSIA...BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS A STRONG JET PUSHES A
FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE TROUGH CROSSING THE BERING AT THE END OF
THE WEEK WILL JOIN UP WITH THE GULF TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THUS...IF THERE IS ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IT
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH IS WHAT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATE. A SPLIT JET OUT WEST WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF FEATURES...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY
MAJOR SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 165 170 176 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB OCT 08