Storm Warning 126, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 231130
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 23 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-240200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 974 MB LOW AT 58N 150W
EARLY THIS MORNING MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
CORDOVA THIS EVENING. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES INTO THE
GULF BEHIND THE LOW FOR TONIGHT AND FRI.

$$

PKZ351-240200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 23 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT.  
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
28 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-240200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 23 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 24 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 28 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 240008 CCA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 23 2008

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-241400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 976 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR CAPE
YAKATAGA THU EVENING. STRONG WEST FLOW IN THE GULF BEHIND THE LOW
TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FRI.

$$

PKZ351-241400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 23 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
28 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 

.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-241400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 23 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
28 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 

.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
TWO STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...ONE BEING A 946 MB MONSTER JUST SOUTH OF ADAK AND THE
OTHER BEING A 967 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF YAKUTAT. A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE LIES IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS. THE 946 MB LOW IN
THE ALEUTIANS HAS HAD HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH IT...AS OBSERVED BY
THE 68 KNOT GUSTS AT BUOY 46071 NEAR AMCHITKA. THE LOW IS BEGINNING
TO WEAKEN HOWEVER AS IT MOVES EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...AND
MOST OF THE REMAINING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC JUST OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST AREA. THE 976
MB GULF LOW TO MOVE INLAND JUST EAST OF YAKUTAT LATER TODAY IS
BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE GULF.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. SOME DISAGREEMENTS WITH A MORE MINOR COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING
LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW MOVING INLAND NEAR YAKUTAT TODAY...GUSTY
NORTH TO WEST WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND ADJACENT MARINE
AREAS. LIGHT SNOW IS SPILLING OVER INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
TODAY. ALSO...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES UP COOK INLET AND MEETS THE FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALREADY PRESENT. A VERY BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE MONSTER ALEUTIAN LOW WILL WEAKEN
AND MOVE INTO THE GULF SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT...BUT A FAIRLY
STRONG TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT EAST OF KODIAK AND
MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR CORDOVA THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL BRING
HIGH END GALE FORCE WINDS TO MOST MARINE AREAS WITH EVEN SOME STORM
FORCE WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW IN THE COLD ADVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS LOW WILL BE
PINPOINTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL MOST
LIKELY EXTEND FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO THE MIDDLE OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA TO ANCHORAGE. GOING WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR
ANCHORAGE FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS VERY CLOSELY. THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON SO FAR IN PLACE OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...WITH MOST OF THE
WEATHER FROM THE GULF LOWS STAYING EAST OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN
RANGES. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE REGION.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A VERY STRONG BUT RAPIDLY WEAKENING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS...AT LEAST GUST-WISE...WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW. EXPECT RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION ANYWHERE NEAR SEA LEVEL. A
TAMER WEATHER PATTERN TO SET UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND A COMPLEX WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
VERY COLD AIRMASS TO PERSIST OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. WARMER WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 187.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONES 130 155 165 170 171 172 175 413 414
         GALE WARNING ZONES 120 125 132 138 140 150 160 176 179 351
         352 411 412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY OCT 08