Gale Warning 598, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 231149
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 23 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-240200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 973 MB LOW AT 54N 159W EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA BY THIS AFTERNOON. A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 55N 175E THIS MORNING
MOVES TO NEAR THE PRIBILOFS TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES TO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRI EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-240200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 23 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS WITH RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-240200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 23 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-240200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 23 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW WIND 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-240200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 232347
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 23 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-241400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 54N 177E WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN TO 1016 MB NEAR
59N 157W FRI NIGHT. RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN BERING FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-241400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 23 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-241400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 23 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-241400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 23 2008

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-241400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 23 2008

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
TWO STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...ONE BEING A 946 MB MONSTER JUST SOUTH OF ADAK AND THE
OTHER BEING A 967 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF YAKUTAT. A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE LIES IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS. THE 946 MB LOW IN
THE ALEUTIANS HAS HAD HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH IT...AS OBSERVED BY
THE 68 KNOT GUSTS AT BUOY 46071 NEAR AMCHITKA. THE LOW IS BEGINNING
TO WEAKEN HOWEVER AS IT MOVES EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...AND
MOST OF THE REMAINING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC JUST OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST AREA. THE 976
MB GULF LOW TO MOVE INLAND JUST EAST OF YAKUTAT LATER TODAY IS
BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE GULF.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. SOME DISAGREEMENTS WITH A MORE MINOR COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING
LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW MOVING INLAND NEAR YAKUTAT TODAY...GUSTY
NORTH TO WEST WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND ADJACENT MARINE
AREAS. LIGHT SNOW IS SPILLING OVER INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
TODAY. ALSO...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES UP COOK INLET AND MEETS THE FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALREADY PRESENT. A VERY BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE MONSTER ALEUTIAN LOW WILL WEAKEN
AND MOVE INTO THE GULF SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT...BUT A FAIRLY
STRONG TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT EAST OF KODIAK AND
MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR CORDOVA THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL BRING
HIGH END GALE FORCE WINDS TO MOST MARINE AREAS WITH EVEN SOME STORM
FORCE WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW IN THE COLD ADVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS LOW WILL BE
PINPOINTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL MOST
LIKELY EXTEND FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO THE MIDDLE OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA TO ANCHORAGE. GOING WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR
ANCHORAGE FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS VERY CLOSELY. THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON SO FAR IN PLACE OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...WITH MOST OF THE
WEATHER FROM THE GULF LOWS STAYING EAST OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN
RANGES. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE REGION.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A VERY STRONG BUT RAPIDLY WEAKENING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS...AT LEAST GUST-WISE...WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW. EXPECT RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION ANYWHERE NEAR SEA LEVEL. A
TAMER WEATHER PATTERN TO SET UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND A COMPLEX WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
VERY COLD AIRMASS TO PERSIST OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. WARMER WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 187.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONES 130 155 165 170 171 172 175 413 414
         GALE WARNING ZONES 120 125 132 138 140 150 160 176 179 351
         352 411 412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY OCT 08