Storm Warning 116, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 061206
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-070200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 986 MB LOW MOVES TO WITHIN 200 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT SAT AFTERNOON
THEN MOVES OVER KODIAK ISLAND AT 1000 MB SUN AFTERNOON AND
DISSIPATES. A 1004 MB LOW NEAR SHEMYA MOVES TO 270 NM SOUTH OF ADAK
AT 100 MB SAT NIGHT THEN TO 150 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 995 MB
SUN NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-070200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO E 45 KT THIS MORNING. GUSTS TO
55 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. WINDS DIMINISHING TO SE 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-070200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...EAST OF SAND POINT...NE WIND 45 KT GUSTING 55 KT DIMINISHING
TO SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 55 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. SAND POINT WESTWARD...NE WIND 40 KT GUSTING 50
DIMINISHING TO N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW 40 KT SAND POINT WESTWARD IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-070200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-070200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO N 35 KT THIS MORNING. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-070200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-070200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-070200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO N 25 THIS MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-070200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-070200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-070200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE WIND 15 KT EAST OF KISKA THIS
MORNING. SEAS 8 FT.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-070200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-070200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL OVERALL APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
REASONABLE AND CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WHICH MOVES TO
THE AK PEN SAT. ECMWF IS A CLOSE SECOND. MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE SOME
WITH INTENSITY AND POSITION OF NEXT LOW COMPLEX TO IMPACT THE AK PEN
MON. THE TREND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAS BEEN TO WEAKEN THE LOW
COMPLEX.

.UPPER LEVELS...HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE MAINLAND AND GULF OF ALASKA
TONIGHT AS THE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTENSIFIES AND TRACKS
NORTH TOWARD THE AK PEN. BY SAT EVENING...A LOW COMPLEX IS EVIDENT
OVER THE AK PEN/EASTERN BERING SEA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 40N
135W TO OVER THE MAINLAND. THE RIDGE FLATTENS SUN/MON AS THE TROUGH
FROM THE EASTERN BERING SEA STRETCHES EAST/NE TO OVER THE MAINLAND.
THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA/EASTERN RUSSIA SUN/MON
AS THE TROUGH DIGS FROM CENTRAL RUSSIA TO JAPAN.

.SURFACE FORECAST...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EASTERN MAINLAND
TONIGHT THEN RETREATS EAST SAT. DEVELOPING NE PACIFIC LOW CENTER
MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE AK PEN SAT EVENING AND INTENSIFIES TO 985
MB. THEN CENTER THEN CROSSES THE AK PEN INTO BRISTOL BAY AND WEAKENS
SUN MORNING. THIS LOW CONTINUES WEAKENING TREND AND TRACKS INTO THE
INTERIOR SUN NIGHT AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH IMPACTS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE AK PEN
AND KODIAK ISLAND SUN MORNING. BY SUN EVENING...THE FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE WESTERN AK PEN...SW AK...KENAI PEN...TO SOUTH ALONG 147W. BY
SUN AFTERNOON...THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND THE
EASTERN GULF.

.EAST...EXPECT UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS OVER MANY AREAS. SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS. EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO INCREASE OVER THE THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND SOUTHCENTRAL SAT WITH APPROACH OF LOW CENTER AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH
OF THE GULF SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH STORM FORCE WINDS OVER SHELIKOF
STRAIT AND THE BERING SEA. GAP WINDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY STRONG AND WILL REQUIRE HEADLINES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER
THE GULF SUN AS THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED INLAND AND TO THE EASTERN
GULF. GAP WINDS...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG...WILL REMAIN BRISK OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL INTO EARLY MON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL (2 INCHES
OR MORE) EXISTS OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS THERE
IS A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH AND SEE HOW THINGS SHAPE
UP.

.WEST...GENERALLY WILL SEE SHOWERS INLAND WITH STRATUS AND FOG ALONG
COASTS TONIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD TO SW ALASKA SAT AND BREAK UP
MORE INTO SHOWERS SUN. DOWNSLOPE OVER INTERIOR SW AK WILL KEEP RAIN
TO MINIMUM SAT. STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL
TROUGH AS IT IMPACTS THE AK PEN LATE TONIGHT/SAT. WINDS WILL SPREAD
TO BRISTOL BAY THROUGH SAT. BY SUN AFTERNOON...WINDS OVER MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...STRONG SW WINDS ARE
LIKELY SOUTH OF THE AK PEN. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY HOLDS OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...UPCOMING FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONE 125
MARINE...STORMS 138 AND 155. GALES 121 125 130 132 140 150 160 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC SEP 08