Storm Warning 115, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 060620 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1020 PM AKDT FRI SEP 5 2008

UPDATED ZONE 138

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-061400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES TO OVER THE EASTERN GULF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 985 MB LOW MOVES TO 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND
POINT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW MOVES TO 50 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT
HEIDEN AND WEAKENS TO 993 MB SUNDAY.

$$

PKZ120-061400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-061400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-061400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-061400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ130-061400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-061400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-061400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
1020 PM AKDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT BY NOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-061400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-061400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL OVERALL APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
REASONABLE AND CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WHICH MOVES TO
THE AK PEN SAT. ECMWF IS A CLOSE SECOND. MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE SOME
WITH INTENSITY AND POSITION OF NEXT LOW COMPLEX TO IMPACT THE AK PEN
MON. THE TREND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAS BEEN TO WEAKEN THE LOW
COMPLEX.

.UPPER LEVELS...HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE MAINLAND AND GULF OF ALASKA
TONIGHT AS THE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTENSIFIES AND TRACKS
NORTH TOWARD THE AK PEN. BY SAT EVENING...A LOW COMPLEX IS EVIDENT
OVER THE AK PEN/EASTERN BERING SEA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 40N
135W TO OVER THE MAINLAND. THE RIDGE FLATTENS SUN/MON AS THE TROUGH
FROM THE EASTERN BERING SEA STRETCHES EAST/NE TO OVER THE MAINLAND.
THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA/EASTERN RUSSIA SUN/MON
AS THE TROUGH DIGS FROM CENTRAL RUSSIA TO JAPAN.

.SURFACE FORECAST...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EASTERN MAINLAND
TONIGHT THEN RETREATS EAST SAT. DEVELOPING NE PACIFIC LOW CENTER
MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE AK PEN SAT EVENING AND INTENSIFIES TO 985
MB. THEN CENTER THEN CROSSES THE AK PEN INTO BRISTOL BAY AND WEAKENS
SUN MORNING. THIS LOW CONTINUES WEAKENING TREND AND TRACKS INTO THE
INTERIOR SUN NIGHT AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH IMPACTS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE AK PEN
AND KODIAK ISLAND SUN MORNING. BY SUN EVENING...THE FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE WESTERN AK PEN...SW AK...KENAI PEN...TO SOUTH ALONG 147W. BY
SUN AFTERNOON...THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND THE
EASTERN GULF.

.EAST...EXPECT UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS OVER MANY AREAS. SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS. EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO INCREASE OVER THE THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND SOUTHCENTRAL SAT WITH APPROACH OF LOW CENTER AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH
OF THE GULF SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH STORM FORCE WINDS OVER SHELIKOF
STRAIT AND THE BERING SEA. GAP WINDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY STRONG AND WILL REQUIRE HEADLINES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER
THE GULF SUN AS THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED INLAND AND TO THE EASTERN
GULF. GAP WINDS...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG...WILL REMAIN BRISK OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL INTO EARLY MON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL (2 INCHES
OR MORE) EXISTS OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS THERE
IS A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH AND SEE HOW THINGS SHAPE
UP.

.WEST...GENERALLY WILL SEE SHOWERS INLAND WITH STRATUS AND FOG ALONG
COASTS TONIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD TO SW ALASKA SAT AND BREAK UP
MORE INTO SHOWERS SUN. DOWNSLOPE OVER INTERIOR SW AK WILL KEEP RAIN
TO MINIMUM SAT. STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL
TROUGH AS IT IMPACTS THE AK PEN LATE TONIGHT/SAT. WINDS WILL SPREAD
TO BRISTOL BAY THROUGH SAT. BY SUN AFTERNOON...WINDS OVER MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...STRONG SW WINDS ARE
LIKELY SOUTH OF THE AK PEN. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY HOLDS OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...UPCOMING FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONE 125
MARINE...STORMS 138 AND 155. GALES 121 125 130 132 140 150 160 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC SEP 08