Small Craft Advisory 970, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST SAT DEC 6 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND APPEARS TO BE THE
MOST CONSISTENT MODELS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODELS HAS
BECOME MORE STABLE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT IS A LITTLE TOO SLOW ON
THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER AIR...
MOST OF THE UPPER AIR FEATURES OVER ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN. AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND NORTON SOUND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AND
WILL SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...
A WEAK LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND WITH A WEAK WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW HAS PRODUCED AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND, KENAI PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY TODAY. AREAS OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL END BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF...
THE LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT
AND DISSIPATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTH AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF AND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST
ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND KENAI PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS
SNOW ASSOCIATED THE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL
INTERIOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A NEW STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MOVE NORTH TO ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK
CITY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE GULF MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND NORTON SOUND WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AREAS OF SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN BERING AND NORTHWEST ALASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL FORM A
CUT-OFF HIGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA MONDAY. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. RAIN, SNOW AND GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
APPROACHES THE STATE.

BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA SUNDAY THEN DISSIPATED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL MOVE NORTHEAST IN THE NORTHERN GULF
TUESDAY THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 08