Small Craft Advisory 945, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING FINE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LEANING ON THE GFS AND NAM FOR THE BEST TRACK ON THE BIG LOW HEADING
THROUGH THE GULF.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE LARGE 976 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK
ISLAND WILL MOVE TO THE KENAI PENINSULA SATURDAY. THE JET STREAM IS
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS ISLANDS IN FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT AND SUPPORT OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN PART OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SNOW
BRINGING NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES. WINDS IN COLD BAY HAVE BEEN GUSTING
AROUND 45 MPH WITH KING COVE GUSTING OVER 85 MPH AT TIMES. THIS
SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT.

THE BIG ISSUE TO WATCH WITH THE FORECAST IS THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA. MODELS ARE BRINGING IT TO
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND THEN STALLING IT BEFORE PUSHING IT
BACK OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THIS IS A SITUATION THAT SHOULD BE
WATCHED CLOSELY SINCE A SMALL CHANGE IN LOW TRACK MAY CAUSE A LARGE
CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS IN THE ENTIRE SOUTH CENTRAL
CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A LOT OF SOUTHEAST FLOW
WITH DOWN SLOPING FROM KENAI THROUGH TALKEETNA UNTIL SOMETIME
TOMORROW WHEN THE COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN AND THEN THE SNOW WILL
START IN EARNEST. UNTIL THEN THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
MIXED WITH RAIN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN. FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA...THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE MARKINGS OF ONE THAT WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO GET
THE SNOW GOING AND THEN WILL TAKE A WHILE TO STOP. BEST TIME
ESTIMATES RIGHT NOW IS FOR THE SNOW TO START LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. COULD BE
AN ADVISORY EVENT BUT DO NOT WANT TO COMMIT TO THAT COURSE JUST YET.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ALASKA MAINLAND WILL SEE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME CLEARING
WITH IT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 181.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 132 138 140 141 150 155 160 165 170 171 180.
         STORM 130 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 138 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 08