Gale Warning 767, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 292104 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1200 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

UPDATED AREA 140

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-300300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 987 MB LOW NEAR 60 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AS 991 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A 1004 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP 60 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD SUNDAY MORNING AND DRIFT TO 75 NM SOUTH
OF MIDDLETON ISLAND SUNDAY EVENING AND DISSIPATE. 
$$

PKZ120-300300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT EXCEPT SE WIND 40 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-300300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-300300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-300300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-300300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY MAINLY WEST OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-300300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT...STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-300300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-300300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
1200 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SOUTHWEST WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. ELSEWHERE...SOUTHWEST WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-300300-
KACHEMAK BAY
1020 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 300006
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-301500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 995 MB LOW IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
AND DISSIPATE SUN. A 1004 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND
SUN MORNING AND DRIFT TO 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT MON AFTERNOON AT
1020 MB. 

$$

PKZ120-301500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-301500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-301500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-301500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-301500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-301500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 11
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-301500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-301500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-301500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTICALLY THE MODEL ARE DOING A GOOD JOB. IN THE EAST THE MODELS
ARE DOING A SOMEWHAT BETTER JOB WITH THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LOW
THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY. THE NAM KEEPS A LOW IN THE SOUND THROUGH
TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING IT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE GFS MOVE IT OFF
TOO FAST TO THE EAST. OUT WEST ALL THE MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB
WITH THE INTENSE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW SITUATED ACROSS KODIAK AND WILL PASS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE PANHANDLE BY
TONIGHT. A WEAK SECONDARY LOW IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST AND BE OUT OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO MOVING UP COOK INLET FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS CAUSING SOME GUSTY
WINDS IN THE REGION AS THE PRESSURE SURGE FOLLOWS THE LOW NORTHWARD.
OUT WEST A LARGE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS IS BRINGING IN MORE
STRONG WINDS AND A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. HEMISPHERIC THE UPPER
PATTERN HAS A DEEP THROUGH DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THIS PATTERN OUT INTO MID WEEK. WITH A LARGE INTENSE SURFACE LOW
BENEATH IT DROPPING INTO THE 950S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL
THROUGHOUT TODAY AS THE COLD ADVECTION MOVES IN.  ONCE THE TROUGH
KICKS THROUGH LATE TODAY SNOW WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER. INLET FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM TONIGHT WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND WIND ALONG THE INLET DROPPING OFF.

SOUTHWEST...GENERAL DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY MONDAY FROM
THE LOW IN THE PACIFIC.

ALEUTIANS/BERING...WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD THE
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SEE STORM/GALE FORCE WINDS
DEVELOPING AND LASTING WELL INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH RAIN AND SNOW.
THE PRIBILOFS WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW WITH WINDS PICKING UP BY THIS
EVENING EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS STARTING THIS EVENING AT SAINT
GEORGE SPREADING TO SAINT PAUL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE STRONG AND NEARLY STATIONARY LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL BE
THE MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE MAINLAND WILL REMAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK WHEN
THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS FINALLY MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...
MARINE..STORMS 130 170 172 175 176
        GALES  121 129 132 138 150 155 165 171 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 08