Small Craft Advisory 877, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST MON NOV 10 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE ARE CERTAINLY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN THIS COMPLEX LOW PATTERN. THE OVERALL GRASP IS GOOD BUT THE
DETAILS ARE WHERE THE ISSUES LIE. THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE ANCHORAGE
FORECAST AREA IS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM IS SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS
TRACK LOOKS VERY REASONABLE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WILL BE USED
FOR GUIDANCE IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGES.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MODERATE LOW THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF LAST NIGHT IS NOW IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. THIS LOW
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY AND DRIFT NORTHWARD.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND WILL
REMAIN NEAR THERE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BERING SEA WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THAT AREA.
A VERY IMPRESSIVE JET STREAM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND IS SERVING
AS A CATALYSIS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
JUNEAU AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST AS THE AREA REMAINS UNSTABLE. A SECOND LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BRING SOME MORE RAIN AND
SNOW INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST. AS THIS LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES ON
SHORE NEAR SEWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BRING IN AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR AREAS FARTHER INLAND IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

IN THE WEST THE LOW IN BRISTOL BAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO MIX
SOME RAIN INTO SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THAT TIME AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY
CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN TROUGH WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN MOVE
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AS A SIGNIFICANT LOW. THIS IS NOT TO HAPPEN
THOUGH CERTAIN AS THE DYNAMICS OF THIS PATTERN OFTEN CAUSE LARGE
FORECAST MODEL ERRORS WHEN RESOLVING SYSTEMS MORE THAN A FEW DAYS
OUT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 130.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 08