Gale Warning 719, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 111237
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-120300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 977 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE 
AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TUE EVENING. A 
992 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WED MORNING WILL DISSIPATE 
AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GULF WED NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-120300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E OF CAPE CLEARE...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT 
LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. W OF CAPE CLEARE...NE WIND 25 KT
BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-120300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-120300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-120300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-120300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT 
BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT NW OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS 8 FT 
EXCEPT 4 FT NW OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-120300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-120300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AROUND MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-120300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-120300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 120017
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-121500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 978 MB LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE
EARLY WED MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WED NIGHT AND THU.
$$

PKZ120-121500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-121500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-121500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS 6 FT. SEAS 10 FT NEAR
HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-121500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 15 KT.  SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-121500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-121500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-121500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-121500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-121500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2008

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST MON NOV 10 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE ARE CERTAINLY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN THIS COMPLEX LOW PATTERN. THE OVERALL GRASP IS GOOD BUT THE
DETAILS ARE WHERE THE ISSUES LIE. THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE ANCHORAGE
FORECAST AREA IS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM IS SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS
TRACK LOOKS VERY REASONABLE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WILL BE USED
FOR GUIDANCE IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGES.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MODERATE LOW THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF LAST NIGHT IS NOW IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. THIS LOW
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY AND DRIFT NORTHWARD.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND WILL
REMAIN NEAR THERE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BERING SEA WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THAT AREA.
A VERY IMPRESSIVE JET STREAM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND IS SERVING
AS A CATALYSIS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
JUNEAU AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST AS THE AREA REMAINS UNSTABLE. A SECOND LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BRING SOME MORE RAIN AND
SNOW INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST. AS THIS LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES ON
SHORE NEAR SEWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BRING IN AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR AREAS FARTHER INLAND IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

IN THE WEST THE LOW IN BRISTOL BAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO MIX
SOME RAIN INTO SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THAT TIME AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY
CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN TROUGH WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN MOVE
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AS A SIGNIFICANT LOW. THIS IS NOT TO HAPPEN
THOUGH CERTAIN AS THE DYNAMICS OF THIS PATTERN OFTEN CAUSE LARGE
FORECAST MODEL ERRORS WHEN RESOLVING SYSTEMS MORE THAN A FEW DAYS
OUT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 130.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 08