Small Craft Advisory 876, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1230 PM AKST SUN NOV 9 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND NAM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON SYSTEM
OVER PILOT POINT WITH THE ECMWF BEING A BIT OF AN OUTLIER.  BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM INDICATE THAT THE LOW CENTER ELONGATES WEST TO EAST FROM
BRISTOL BAY TO KODIAK.  THE GFS IS 4 TO 6 MB DEEPER BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.  ALL MODELS SHOW THIS LOW SPINNING AROUND BRISTOL BAY FOR
THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH THE LOW CENTER IN BRISTOL BAY MAIN
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. EXPECT SOUTHEAST FLOW
ONSHORE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY.  THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE SYSTEMS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH SO WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS
OVER THE GULF WILL NOT BE AS HOMOGENEOUS AS MODELS INDICATE

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING SEA...NORTHWEST FLOW...SHOWERS...STRATUS.

SOUTHWEST...AS WARM AIR OVER BRISTOL BAY MOVES NORTHWESTWARD SHOULD
SEE WARMING TO NEAR FREEZING OVER BETHEL ZONE AND BEYOND.  RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ON TAP FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPS IN THE 30S FROM
COAST TO THE MIDDLE KUSKO...COOLER TO THE NORTH.

SOUTHCENTRAL...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL PRODUCE
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS THROUGH GAPS AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LOOKING FOR STRONG WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG THE COAST AS
BARRIER JET FORMS STRONG WINDS IN THE PORTAGE AREA AS WELL.  WINDS
OVER WESTERN CHUGACH AND KENAI MTNS GUSTY DUE TO MOUNTAIN WAVES.
EXPECTING DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO REMAIN OVER UPPER AND POSSIBLY MIDDLE
HILLSIDE AS WE MAINTAIN A STRONG DOWN INLET PRESSURE GRADIENT UNTIL
LATE MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SHIELD ANCHORAGE AND LOWER HILLSIDE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS PER USUAL THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL
DIVERGENCE ON THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY
NIGHT.  WOULD HOWEVER BY TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT A 970 TO 975 MB LOW
CENTER SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN GULF BETWEEN SEWARD AND MONTAGUE
ISLAND.  MORE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND STRONG BARRIER JET
IN THE GULF.

MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST AS LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
REMAINS IN AREA UNTIL THURSDAY.

CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE BERING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY WHEN FLOW
BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PORTAGE...SNOW ADV FOR WESTERN AK RANGE.
MARINE...GALES AND STORMS EAST OF 170W
FIRE WEATHER...MAYBE NEXT SUMMER...MAYBE NOT.

JOHNANIMAL NOV 08