Gale Warning 718, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 110020
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON NOV 10 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 977 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO NEAR
SEWARD TUE AFTERNOON. A 996 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 75 NM WEST OF
SITKINAK WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-111500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST MON NOV 10 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-111500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST MON NOV 10 2008

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-111500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST MON NOV 10 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-111500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST MON NOV 10 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-111500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST MON NOV 10 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-111500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST MON NOV 10 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-111500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST MON NOV 10 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-111500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST MON NOV 10 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO SE 35 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM. SEAS
6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-111500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST MON NOV 10 2008

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST MON NOV 10 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
BOTH GFS AND NAM ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS
IN AND AROUND KODIAK ISLAND AND BRISTOL BAY. UKMET IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS AND IS THUS THE
PREFERRED MODEL THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. REGARDING THE MID AND LONG
RANGE...ECMWF HAS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THAN GFS BUT
EVEN THE ECMWF OVERDOES THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW IN THE GULF AT
MIDWEEK. WITH SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THE MID AND LONG TERM
NWP SOLUTIONS...MINIMAL CHANGES APPLIED TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
BEYOND 00Z FRI.

.UPPER LEVELS...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA HOLDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
AND THE EASTERN GULF MIGRATES INTO WESTERN CANADA BY THIS EVENING.

.SURFACE FEATURES...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A 979 MB LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON THEN MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TUE NIGHT. A 978 MB LOW JUST EAST OF KODIAK
ISLAND WILL MOVE TO NEAR BETHEL MON EVENING THE WEAKEN TO 983 MB TUE
NIGHT IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A 982 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 976 MB AS IT MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA TUE AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND...BECOMING A
983 MB LOW OVER INTERIOR ALASKA BY WED MORNING.

.BERING SEA...ALEUTIANS...AND ALASKA PENINSULA...
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
60 HOURS.

.SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND...
PLENTY OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR. SNOW MAY BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES
AROUND BRISTOL BAY TODAY WITH MANY COASTAL STATIONS ALREADY HAVING
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING POINT.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE GULF COAST EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SLACKEN BY LATE EVENING. LIKEWISE WITH THE BARRIER JET JUST
OFFSHORE. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH BROAD PASS AND ALONG COOK INLET
ALSO DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9
INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED BY TOMORROW MORNING IN THE WESTERN
SUSITNA VALLEY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA...ANCHORAGE AREA...MAT VALLEY...AND COPPER RIVER BASIN
WILL BE PATCHY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
KODIAK ISLAND WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF EARLY TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
PATTERN BEYOND 60 HOURS IS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE...EXPECT A SERIES OF
STORMS TO MOVE OUT OF THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST AND TRANSVERSE THE BERING
SEA. ALSO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STEER NORTH PACIFIC
STORMS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY ZONE 145
MARINE...STORMS 120 130
         GALES  125 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB NOV 08