Small Craft Advisory 869, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST THU NOV 6 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
LOW IN THE GULF WILL HEAD NORTH TOWARD YAKUTAT AND MAKE LANDFALL
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO INDICATE ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR SEWARD TONIGHT AND
PERSIST NEAR THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS IN THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN BERING SEA PERSISTS.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS MOVING NORTH TOWARD
THE ALASKA COASTLINE. RAIN AND SNOW FROM THE STORM IS FALLING MAINLY
OVER THE JUNEAU FORECAST AREA BUT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST INTO THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...RAIN AND SNOW FROM THE LOW IN THE GULF
WILL MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
TONIGHT THEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE OLD CENTER MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST CANADA AND WEAKER LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
TO DEVELOP NEAR CORDOVA TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY TONIGHT UNTIL AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
GULF SATURDAY.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STORM NEAR THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY WITH
WIND, RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING INTO THE AK PEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
KODIAK ISLAND THE BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL
MOVE TO SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A GOOD SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND WILL MOVE MOIST MARITIME AIRMASS INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JMP NOV 08